基于Logistic模型的交通运输业与邮政业融合发展研究——以重庆市为例
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TP39;F724.6

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国家科技支撑计划"网购物流城市共同配送关键共性服务技术研究"(2015BAH46F01);交通运输行业高层次技术人才培养项目"‘互联网+’环境下我国电子商务与快递业融合协同发展研究"(NO.13);重庆市教委人文社科研究项目"共享理念下重庆市交通运输与邮政业融合发展路径及策略研究"(16SKGH057);重庆市社会科学规划项目"‘互联网+’环境下我国电子商务与快递业融合共生发展研究"(2016PY45)


Research on the integration relationship between transportation industry and post industry based on logistic model: A case study of Chongqing
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    摘要:

    产业融合作为促进产业升级发展的有效途径一直以来受到广大学者的广泛关注。交通运输业与邮政业具有覆盖范围广,渗透能力强,带动效应明显的优势特点,两业的深度合作使得现代综合交通运输体系更加集约高效。针对以上现实背景,文章构建了交通运输业与邮政业融合发展的Logistic模型,分析了模型的稳定点与共生状态下的推动力,并选取重庆市1997—2016年的时间序列进行实证分析,辨别了重庆市两大产业间的共生模式并创新性地计算了两业间的推动力。结论表明:重庆市交通运输业与邮政业存在强相关性,交通运输业增长步入低速增长期,邮政业仍保持高速发展态势,在当前社会经济条件下,二者存在非对称性互利共生关系,能够紧密发展推进产业融合,但并不处于最优的共生模式下。基于研究结论,文章最后提出重庆市交通运输业与邮政业融合发展的可行建议,促使两大产业向更稳定、具效率的共生模式转化,从而助推重庆市构建现代一流的综合交通运输体系。

    Abstract:

    Industrial convergence has been widely concerned by scholars as an effective way to promote industrial upgrading and development. Transportation industry and postal industry have the advantages of wide coverage, strong penetration ability and obvious driving effect. The deep cooperation between the two industries makes the modern comprehensive transportation system more intensive and efficient. Based on this background, this paper constructs a Logistic model for the integration and development of transportation industryand postal industry, analyzes the stable point of the model and the driving force under the symbiotic state. After that, this paper selects the time series of Chongqing from 1997 to 2016 for empirical analysis.The analysis identifies the symbiotic mode between the two industries in Chongqing, and innovatively calculates the driving force between the two industries. The conclusion shows that there is a strong correlation between the transportation industry and the postal industry in Chongqing. The growth of the transportation industry has entered a period of low-speed growth, and the postal industry still maintains a high-speed development trend. Under the current social and economic conditions, there is an asymmetric and mutually beneficial symbiotic relationship between the two, which can closely promote industrial integration but not in the optimal symbiotic mode. Based on the conclusion of the study, this paper puts forward some feasible suggestions for the integration and development of Chongqing's transportation industry and postal industry which will promote the transformation of the two major industries into a more stable and efficient symbiotic mode, thus driving Chongqing to establish a modern first-class comprehensive transportation system.

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田帅辉,徐瞳,王旭.基于Logistic模型的交通运输业与邮政业融合发展研究——以重庆市为例[J].重庆大学学报社会科学版,2019,25(6):14-23. DOI:10.11835/j.issn.1008-5831.jg.2019.04.004

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  • 收稿日期:2019-03-26
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  • 在线发布日期: 2019-09-21
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