Analysis of Land Supply Timing Based on Real Option Modeling
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    Abstract:

    The paper employs real option approach to explore land supply timing strategy and analyze land management flexibility and its value under dynamics and uncertainty of land market quotations. The results show that the uncertainty of land market induces option value, the option value decreases with the opportunity loss growth of land supply, and local government’s land option value increases and acquisition cost decreases and investment returns don’t lower if the risk free rate rises. It is concluded that, local government should hold land and not go short, cut land backup holdings if the opportunity loss grows, and regulates land market by integration of land policy and interest rates adjustment because rates influences the investment returns of land developer more than local finance revenue.

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李红波,刘亚丽.基于实物期权模型的土地供应时机分析[J].重庆大学学报社会科学版,2013,19(1):45~49

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  • Online: January 21,2013
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