2025年7月20日 周日
The demographic effect on saving rate and interest rate:An empirical analysis of income effect
CSTR:
Author:
  • Article
  • | |
  • Metrics
  • |
  • Reference [22]
  • |
  • Related [20]
  • | | |
  • Comments
    Abstract:

    In an intertemporal general equilibrium framework, the economic mechanism of how saving rate and interest rate are affected by shocks of birth or death rates is discussed. Redistributions of consumption within the population is found to be the key driving force, given a small enough elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS<1). Quantitatively, an empirical analysis using cross-national panel data indicates that birth and death rates affect the saving rate (or interest rate) through not identical channels. Birth rate affects saving rate positively, whereas death rate affects it negatively, and the effect of birth rate on saving rate is stronger than that of death rate. By contrast, interest rate is decreasing in the birth rate and increasing in the death rate, and the effect of birth rate on interest rate is smaller than that of death rate.

    Reference
    [1] 蔡昉.未富先老与中国经济增长的可持续性[J].国际经济评论,2012(1):82-95.
    [2] MODIGLIANI F, BRUMBERG R.Utility Analysis and the consumption function:An interpretation of the cross-section data[M]//Kurihara K K.Post-Keynesian Economics.New Brunswick, NJ:Rutgers University Press, 1954.
    [3] MODIGLIANI F, BRUMBERG R.Utility analysis and aggregate consumption functions:an attempt at integration[C]//The Collected Papers of Franco Modigliani.Cambridge:MIT Press, 1980:128-197.
    [4] DESSI R.Household saving and wealth in China:Some evidence from survey data[R].University of Cambridge Working Paper No.9112, 1991.
    [5] HIGGING M, WILLIAMSON G.Asian demography and foreign capital dependence[R].NBER Working Paper No.5560, 1996.
    [6] LOAYZA N, SCHMIDT-HEBBEL K, SERVEN L.What drives private saving across the world[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2000, 82(2):165-181.
    [7] BOSWORTH B, CHODOROW-REICH G.Saving and demographic change:The global dimension[R].CRR Working Paper, 2007.
    [8] CURTIS C, LUGAUER S, MARK C.Demographic patterns and household saving in China[R].NBER Working Paper No.16828, 2011.
    [9] 董丽霞,赵文哲.不同发展阶段的人口转变与储蓄率关系研究[J].世界经济,2013(3):80-102.
    [10] ABEL A.The effects of a baby boom on stock prices and capital accumulation in the presence of social security[J].Econometrica, 2003, 71(2):551-578.
    [11] COCCO F, GOMES J.Longevity risk, retirement savings, and financial innovation[J].Journal of Financial Economics, 2012, 103(3):507-529.
    [12] THOMAS P, KATJA H.Longevity risk, subjective survival expectations, and individual saving behavior[J].Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2013, 86(C):200-220.
    [13] GEANAKOPLOS J, MAGILL M, QUINZⅡ M.Demography and the long-run predictability of the stock market[R].Cowles Foundation Paper Series No.1099, 2004.
    [14] KARA E, VON THADDEN L.Interest rate effects of demographic changes in a new-Keynesian life-cycle framework[R].European Central Bank Working Paper, No.1273, 2010.
    [15] IKEDA D, SAITO M.The effects of demographic changes on the real interest rate in Japan[R].Bank of Japan Working Paper No.12-E-3, 2012.
    [16] 陈国进,李威.人口结构与利率水平研究[J].中国人口科学,2013(5):68-77.
    [17] HUBBARD R, SKINNER J, ZELDES S.The importance of precautionary motives in explaining individual and aggregate saving[R].NBER Working Paper No.4516, 1993.
    [18] DUFFIE D, EPSTEIN L.Stochastic differential utility[J].Econometrica, 1992, 60(2):353-394.
    [19] MAURER T.Asset pricing implications of demographic change[C].24th Australasian Banking and Finance Conference Paper, 2014.
    [20] PHOLILE D,CHRISTOPHER M,KALU O.The elasticity of intertemporal substitution reconsidered[R].MPRA Paper No.55547, 2014.
    [21] 顾六宝,肖红叶.中国消费跨期替代弹性的两种统计估算方法[J].统计研究,2004(9):8-11.
    [22] 顾六宝,幺海亮,陈博飞.中国居民消费跨期替代弹性的年序递推统计估算研究[J].经济统计学(季刊),2013(1):95-100.
    Cited by
    Comments
    Comments
    分享到微博
    Submit
Get Citation

钟阳.人口转变对储蓄率及利率的影响:基于收入效应的实证研究[J].重庆大学学报社会科学版,2016,22(2):67~79

Copy
Share
Article Metrics
  • Abstract:1372
  • PDF: 1068
  • HTML: 698
  • Cited by: 0
History
  • Received:January 06,2016
  • Online: April 07,2016
Article QR Code