Financial leverage, interest rate liberalization and macroeconomic fluctuation: A study based on DSGE model under the framework of financial accelerator
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    Abstract:

    In order to study the effect of financial leverage,interest rate liberalization on China's macro economy,this paper introduced a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the financial accelerator mechanism.At the same time,we introduce eight shocks,including wage inflation shock,monetary policy shock,investment shocks,government purchases shock,preferences shocks,financial impact shock and productivity shock,and analyze the effects of various shocks on the economy about the presence or absence of the financial accelerator,different financial levers and the interest rate liberalization three cases,using the data from Q1of 2001 to Q4 of 2013,and using Bayesian inference method to estimate DSGE model.The results show that:1) In the financial accelerator mechanism,shocks would magnify the impact of economic fluctuations,and financial impact shock explained most of the disturbance information; 2) Compared with the financial leverage ratio of 1.5 and 2.5,all shocks had great effect on the economy when the financial leverage ratio was 2; 3) The interest rate liberalization would be the role of economic through monetary policy shock and financial impact shock.The endogenous variables follow a similar hump-shaped trajectory under the shock of monetary in which has the greatest impact on labor supply and investment.While the financial impact shock has greater impact on output,consumption,investment and labor supply.Therefore,we have four policies including having a certain leverage grace period,deepening and steadily promoting interest rate liberalization reform,continuing implementation of prudent monetary policy and proactive fiscal policy,for steady growth,promoting reform,adjusting the economic structure and improving people's livelihood.

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朱培金.金融杠杆、利率市场化与宏观经济波动——基于金融加速器框架下的DSGE模型研究[J].重庆大学学报社会科学版,2017,23(3):23~34

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History
  • Received:March 09,2017
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  • Online: April 22,2017
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