2025年3月24日 周一
On China's new development strategy of dual economic cycles
CSTR:
Author:
Clc Number:

F124

  • Article
  • | |
  • Metrics
  • |
  • Reference [38]
  • |
  • Related [20]
  • | | |
  • Comments
    Abstract:

    With the continuous escalation of US-Sino trade frictions and the on-going COVID-19 pandemic, a global economic recession seems inevitable. Faced with a series of risks and uncertainties, such as the shrinking of developed markets, the insufficient size of emerging markets, trade protectionism, etc., it is imperative to adopt a new development strategy emphasizing the dominant role of internal circulation and the complementarity of both the internal and external circulations to sustain China’s long term economic development in its long term effort of the great national rejuvenation. Based on China’s 40-years’ development achievements after the economic reforms and opening-up, this article discusses the current domestic and global economic situations, and analyzes why China should take the domestic economic cycle as the mainstay and exploit the complementarity of both the internal and external circulations before making some policy recommendations.

    Reference
    [1] 扶婧颖,李源.习近平在看望参加政协会议的经济界委员时强调:坚持用全面辩证长远眼光分析经济形势,努力在危机中育新机于变局中开新局[N].人民日报,2020-05-24(01). http://cpc.people.com.cn/n1/2020/0524/c64094-31720895.html.
    [2] 国际货币基金组织.《世界经济展望》更新:前所未有的危机,不确定的复苏[EB/OL].(2020-06-24)[2020-08-11].https://www.imf.org/zh/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020.
    [3] 洪俊杰."双循环"相互促进,高质量发展可期[N].光明日报, 2020-07-09(02). http://epaper.gmw.cn/gmrb/html/2020-07/09/nw.D110000gmrb_20200709_1-02.htm.
    [4] 程实, 钱智俊."双循环"的演进之路:2020与1913[EB/OL].[2020-08-10]. http://finance.sina.com.cn/zl/china/2020-07-31/zl-iivhuipn6077610.shtml?cre=zhuanlanpc&mod=g&loc=20&r=0&rfunc=92&tj=none.
    [5] 中国新闻网.从"两个循环",读懂习近平所说"站在历史正确的一边"[EB/OL].(2020-08-06)[2020-08-10].http://www.chinanews.com/gn/2020/08-06/9258128.shtml.
    [6] 姚树洁."摸着石头过河" 与顶层设计有效结合:中国40多年改革开放伟大奇迹的关键[J].人民论坛,2019(19):80-81.
    [7] TIAN W,XU Z X,YU M J,et al.China's free trade Ports:effective action against the threat of de-globalization[J]. China & World Economy,2018,26(4):62-81.
    [8] YAO S J,ZHANG Z Y.On regional inequality and diverging clubs:A case study of contemporary China[J].Journal of Comparative Economics,2001,29(3):466-484.
    [9] 姚树洁,冯根福,韦开蕾.外商直接投资和经济增长的关系研究[J].经济研究,2006(12):35-46.
    [10] 蒋殿春,夏良科.外商直接投资对中国高技术产业技术创新作用的经验分析[J].世界经济,2005,28(8):3-10,80.
    [11] YAO S J,WEI K L.Economic growth in the presence of FDI:The perspective of newly industrialising economies[J].Journal of Comparative Economics,2007,35(1):211-234.
    [12] 王岚,李宏艳.中国制造业融入全球价值链路径研究:嵌入位置和增值能力的视角[J].中国工业经济,2015(2):76-88.
    [13] 姚树洁,汪锋.扩大开放与经济高质量发展[J].人民论坛,2018(23):84-85.
    [14] 金碚.中国经济发展新常态研究[J].中国工业经济,2015(1):5-18.
    [15] 李扬,张晓晶."新常态":经济发展的逻辑与前景[J].经济研究,2015(5):4-19.
    [16] 金芳.金融危机后的世界经济格局变化及其对美国经济的影响[J].世界经济研究,2010(10):3-9.
    [17] 王小梅,秦学志,尚勤.金融危机以来贸易保护主义对中国出口的影响[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2014,31(5):20-36,85.
    [18] 陈继勇,陈大波.特朗普经贸保护政策对中美经贸关系的影响[J].经济学家,2017(10):96-104.
    [19] 郭可为.中美贸易战:动机分析与情景推演[J].国际经济合作,2018(5):18-24.
    [20] 陈继勇.中美贸易战的背景、原因、本质及中国对策[J].武汉大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2018,71(5):72-81.
    [21] 佟家栋,谢丹阳,包群,等."逆全球化"与实体经济转型升级笔谈[J].中国工业经济,2017(6):5-59.
    [22] 张幼文.中美贸易战:不是市场竞争而是战略竞争[J].南开学报(哲学社会科学版),2018(3):8-10.
    [23] 戴翔,张二震,王原雪.特朗普贸易战的基本逻辑、本质及其应对[J].南京社会科学,2018(4):11-17,29.
    [24] 徐康宁.疫情影响下的世界经济:变局与重塑[J/OL].华南师范大学学报(社会科学版).https://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/44.1139.C.20200806.1705.004.html
    [25] 周强.新冠肺炎疫情全球蔓延对中国贸易发展的影响与对策[J].商业经济研究,2020(15):141-144.
    [26] SONG L G,ZHOU Y X.The COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the global economy:What does it take to turn crisis into opportunity?[J].China & World Economy,2020,28(4):1-25.
    [27] 沈国兵,徐源晗.疫情全球蔓延对我国进出口和全球产业链的冲击及应对举措[J].四川大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2020(4):75-90.
    [28] 沈国兵.新冠肺炎疫情全球蔓延下我国就业困境及纾解措施[J].国际商务研究,2020,41(4):5-14.
    [29] 杜尚泽."着眼点着力点不能放在GDP增速上"[N].人民日报,2020-05-23(01).
    [30] 姚树洁.中国跨越"中等收入陷阱"的经济理论及战略[J].国际经济评论,2018(1):86-107.
    [31] YAO S J,FANG J,HE H B.Can time-space compression promote urban economic growth? Evidence from China's high-speed rail projects[J].China & World Economy,in press.https://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12339.
    [32] 国家统计局.《党委中心组学习》发表宁吉喆署名文章:对冲克服新冠肺炎疫情影响巩固发展经济长期向好趋势[EB/OL].(2020-04-14)[2020-08-11].http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjgz/tjdt/202004/t20200414_1738742.html.
    [33] 北京市统计局.北京市2019年国民经济和社会发展统计公报[EB/OL].(2020-03-02)[2020-08-11].http://www.beijing.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengcefagui/202003/t20200302_1673464.html.
    [34] 甘肃省统计局.2019年甘肃省国民经济和社会发展统计公报[EB/OL].(2020-03-20)[2020-08-11].http://www.gsei.com.cn/html/1288/2020-03-23/content-268547.html.
    [35] 交通运输部.2019年交通运输行业发展统计公报[EB/OL].(2020-05-12)[2020-08-10].http://xxgk.mot.gov.cn/jigou/zhghs/202005/t20200512_3374322.html.
    [36] 重庆日报.7月份重庆外贸进出口创五年来新高总值642.2亿元,同比增长37%[EB/OL].[2020-08-16].https://www.cqrb.cn/content/2020-08/16/content_266910.htm.
    [37] 人民网.中欧班列开行列数创新高[EB/OL].[2020-08-16].http://world.people.com.cn/n1/2020/0816/c1002-31823769.html.
    [38] 上游新闻."南向通道"铁海联运班列累计开行930列[EB/OL].[2020-08-16].https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1634015916252031719&wfr=spider&for=pc.
    Cited by
    Comments
    Comments
    分享到微博
    Submit
Get Citation

姚树洁,房景.“双循环”发展战略的内在逻辑和理论机制研究[J].重庆大学学报社会科学版,2020,26(6):10~23

Copy
Share
Article Metrics
  • Abstract:1006
  • PDF: 1642
  • HTML: 2127
  • Cited by: 0
History
  • Revised:September 01,2020
  • Online: November 12,2020
Article QR Code