Research on the impact of trade facilitation on export duration from the perspective of cooperation between "the Belt and the Eurasian Economic Union"
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F752.62;F125;F116

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    Abstract:

    Consolidating and developing the economic and trade cooperation relationship with the Eurasian Economic Union is of great significance to the promotion of "the Belt and Road" construction. The article has established a relatively comprehensive three-level indicator trade facilitation system, which is close to the actual situation of the member countries of the Eurasian Economic Union. Using the CEPII-BACI database 2007-2016 HS6 quantile product level data, firstly, the survival analysis method is used to estimate the duration of the export trade relationship between the Eurasian Economic Union and its member states. Secondly, the Cloglog model is used to investigate the impact of trade facilitation on the duration of the bilateral export trade relationship. The interaction of trade facilitation and regional economic integration is further introduced to investigate the impact of trade facilitation after the launch on the duration of exports. The study finds: 1) The duration of exports between China and the Eurasian Economic Union is generally short, with a median of only 3 years, and the proportion of trade relations lasting more than 1 year is 63.7%, accounting for 50.5% for more than two years, a decrease of 13.2%, and only 29.6% in the ninth year, which is less than one-third. Therefore, China’s trade relations with the member states of the Eurasian Economic Union last for a short period of time. The probability of failure is negatively time dependent. 2) Trade facilitation will significantly reduce the risk of failure in the export trade relationship between China and the Eurasian Economic Union and improve the survival rate of bilateral trade relations. At the micro level, it shows that the level of trade facilitation is improved, the transaction costs paid by multinational enterprises in international trade activities are reduced and the profit space is improved, so as to prolong the export duration of enterprises. 3) The impact of trade facilitation on the export duration of different types of products is heterogeneous. From the perspective of regression coefficient, the order from heavy to light is labor-intensive products, capital-intensive products and primary products. Because when the level of trade facilitation changes, labor-intensive products and capital-intensive products with long value chain and high domestic added value are more vulnerable to the "technology spillover" effect caused by trade facilitation. For primary products, the impact of agricultural policy is greater than the level of trade facilitation. Therefore, compared with capital intensive products and labor-intensive products, the level of trade facilitation has a relatively low impact on primary products. 4) Further through the interaction term model, it is found that after the launch of the Eurasian Economic Union, a customs union effect will be produced. The member states will form a five-country regional market with zero tariffs, which will promote the optimization of internal enterprise production factors and resource allocation, and the flow of internal factors will be freer and more convenient. Member states can obtain more economies of scale, and at the same time, promote the transfer of Chinese exports to other member states in the Eurasian Economic Union more quickly and efficiently, increase the willingness of Chinese enterprises to export, and increase the impact of trade facilitation on the duration of exports enhancement. The research in this article highlights the key role of trade facilitation in enhancing export trade relations, and has certain practical reference value for enhancing the level of economic and trade cooperation between China and the Eurasian Economic Union in the context of "the Belt and Road" construction.

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程显宏,李豫新,邹宗森."一带一盟"对接合作视阈下贸易便利化对出口持续时间的影响研究[J].重庆大学学报社会科学版,2022,28(2):38~52

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  • Online: April 25,2022
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