Research on the dynamic impact of digital inclusive finance on rural revitalization:Test based on system GMM and threshold effect
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F323.43;F49

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    Abstract:

    At present, China has won an all-round victory in the battle against poverty, and the 14th five-year-plan has entered in full operation. Digital inclusive finance is facing new opportunities and challenges in catalyzing rural revitalization. In order to study the role and influence of digital inclusive finance on rural revitalization, this paper analyzes the mechanism of digital inclusive finance affecting rural revitalization from the theoretical perspective, and then conducts empirical research based on this. The entropy of TOPSIS method is used to measure the level of rural revitalization in 31 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) of Chinese mainland in 2011-2018. The measurement results show that the overall level of rural revitalization in China's provinces has improved slowly. In terms of the rural revitalization level in 2018, the central region is slightly higher than the western region, and the eastern region is significantly higher than the western region, indicating that the rural revitalization level in the western region is lower than that in the eastern and central regions, and there are significant regional differences in the rural revitalization levels in China, on the basis of which, the system GMM method is used to quantitatively explore the relationship between digital inclusive finance and regional rural revitalization level, and empirically analyze the impact of the development of digital inclusive finance on overall rural revitalization and its different dimensions. Furthermore, in order to verify whether there is a simple linear relationship between digital inclusive finance and rural revitalization, the threshold model is used to carry out empirical research. The paper finds that digital inclusive finance plays a positive role in promoting the level of rural revitalization in China, this performance is mainly achieved through the positive impact of digital inclusive finance on rural civilization, industrial prosperity, living in affluence and ecological livability; There is not a simple linear relationship between digital inclusive finance and the level of rural revitalization and development. The influence of the former on the latter has the characteristics of double thresholds. When the digital inclusive finance index is between the first threshold (2.9161) and the second threshold (5.7357), its role in promoting rural revitalization is the weakest. When the digital inclusive financial index crosses the second threshold, its role in promoting the level of rural revitalization is significantly enhanced. By 2018, digital inclusive finance in 8 provinces across the country has crossed the second threshold, including 6 eastern coastal provinces. It can be seen that there is a certain causal relationship between the unbalanced development of rural revitalization in various regions of China and the unbalanced development of digital inclusive finance. Based on the research results, this paper puts forward the following policy suggestions:first, the implementation of inclusive finance in various regions should be strengthened and the level of rural revitalization and development in various regions should be effectively improved; second, according to the development of digital inclusive financial index in various regions, different inclusive financial strategies should be implemented according to local environments in order to improve the digital inclusive financial index in various regions; third, the rural governance system should be improved and the corresponding system and mechanism should be constructed; last, an intelligent risk control system should be established, and an inclusive financial supervision mechanism be enhanced, thus effectively preventing the potential risks of rural digital inclusive finance.

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田霖,张园园,张仕杰.数字普惠金融对乡村振兴的动态影响研究——基于系统GMM及门槛效应的检验[J].重庆大学学报社会科学版,2022,28(3):25~38

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  • Received:
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  • Online: July 04,2022
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