Demographic dividend, human capital dividend and urban economic resilience
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School of Economics, Southwest Minzu University, Chengdu610225, P R China

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F061.5

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    Abstract:

    Population is a fundamental, long-term and strategic element for the development of the country, society and nation. Reasonable population distribution, high-quality human capital, and abundant working-age population will form a situation conducive to the investment and consumption of high-speed economic growth, create a demographic window of opportunity, and enhance the city's ability to bear risks and restore the economy. Currently, China's population is experiencing a transition from a continuous increase in the total amount of population to a continuous decrease, and the quality of the population is changing from the overall low level of education and short life expectancy to the massification of higher education and longevity. On the basis of discussing the intrinsic mechanism of the impact of the demographic dividend and human capital dividend on urban economic resilience, this paper uses the panel data of 272 cities in the period of 2010-2021, and makes an empirical analysis of the direct and indirect effects of demographic dividend and human capital dividend on urban economic resilience. The study finds that human capital dividend can significantly enhance urban economic resilience, while the effect of the demographic dividend is not obvious. The results of the heterogeneity test show that there is no obvious urban heterogeneity in the impact of demographic dividend, and the economic resilience enhancement of any type of cities is not prominent. While the effect of human capital dividend on the enhancement of urban economic resilience is more obvious in the cities in the southeast area of Hu Huanyong line, inland cities, and cities with relatively low levels of economic development, and the effect on the rest of the cities is weaker. The results of the test of the mechanism of the role show that the construction of information infrastructure effectively improves the enhancement of quality of population utilization efficiency on urban economic resilience, while the effect brought by the construction of transportation infrastructure is not obvious, and even there is a tendency to weaken the quality of population utilization efficiency to enhance urban economic resilience, at the same time, there is a significant mediating role of labor productivity in the impact of quality of population utilization efficiency on urban economic resilience. Further research finds that there is a threshold effect of population agglomeration in the impact of quality of population utilization efficiency on urban economic resilience, and the positive impact of population utilization efficiency on urban economic resilience will be weakened after crossing the threshold. Based on the above findings, the article believes that it is necessary to strengthen the construction of public health system, continuously optimize the layout of medical and health resources, and comprehensively improve the capacity of medical and health services; strengthen the construction of information infrastructure and promote its extension to the west and other border areas, and strive to play the role of informatization in promoting the flow of information elements and broadening the channels for laborers to obtain employment information; formulate talent policies in accordance with the local conditions to let talents stay and work well, fully releasing the dividend of talent, and providing sustained human capital for cities to withstand external shocks and recover their economies.

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何雄浪,王诗语.人口数量红利、人口质量红利与城市经济韧性[J].重庆大学学报社会科学版,2025,(1):46~62

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  • Online: March 25,2025
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