Abstract:Over the past ten years, the Belt and Road has become a new highlight of Chinas foreign trade cooperation in the new era. Based on the theory of new economic geography, this paper takes 60 countries along the Belt and Road as the research samples, and utilizes the cross-country panel data from 2001 to 2019 to test the effect of factor endowment on the trade cooperation between China and the countries along the Belt and Road from the spatial perspective by applying the dynamic spatial panel stochastic frontier model, based on which it analyzes the characteristics of the changes in the efficiency of the trade cooperation between China and the countries along the Belt and Road and the potential for the cooperation in the trade of different types of commodities, and then combines the idea of the two-dimensional matrix to propose the path for the release of the potential of the trade cooperation in the future on the basis of the appropriateness of the factor endowment and the potential of the trade. The conclusions are as follows: This paper constructs a spatial connectivity matrix based on the connectivity index, and finds that there exists a double positive time-space dependence relationship between Chinas trade cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road. Natural resource and capital factors play a significant role in promoting trade cooperation between China and the countries along the Belt and Road, while there is a certain degree of competition in terms of the labor factor, and the trade-promoting effect of the innovation factor has not yet been given full play, and the trade-promoting effect of the innovation factor has not yet been fully realized. In terms of control variables, the size of the host countrys economy, the degree of industrialization, the level of urbanization, the existence of a common border between the two countries, the signing of the agreement and the accession to the World Trade Organization are all conducive to the trade cooperation between China and the Belt and Road countries, geographic distance is still an important obstacle to bilateral trade cooperation, in addition to capital, bilateral trade cooperation is also subject to inefficiency factors, there is still a greater potential for expansion of Chinas trade cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road, the above conclusions are still established after the trade distance matrix and the economic and geographic matrix of the robustness of the test. In terms of heterogeneity, it is further found that trade cooperation between China and countries along the Belt and Road is characterized by significant product heterogeneity. In terms of trade efficiency, the efficiency of trade cooperation between China and countries along the Belt and Road has continued to improve, but has not yet reached an optimal state. In terms of trade potential hierarchy, the number of re-modeling trading partners is the smallest, and the number of growth trading partners is the most, and the structure of trade potential hierarchy of different categories of products is characterized by an unbalanced structure. Finally, combining the two-dimensional matrix idea, based on the suitability of factor endowment and trade potential, trade partners can be divided into four types of trade partners: intensive and efficient, efficiency-led, steadily improving and scale-expanding. Based on this, we propose three paths of unilateral breakthrough, progressive improvement and leapfrog in releasing trade potential, which can provide an important reference for the promotion of the Belt and Road to realize the smooth flow of trade, and provide important references for the high-quality promotion of the construction of the Belt and Road.

Abstract:At present, when the thought of reverse globalization surges, how to improve the efficiency and potential of petroleum import under the Belt and Road Initiative is the key to ensure the energy and economic security of China in the new period. Based on the panel data of China and 42 major petroleum countries and areas during the period from 1998 to 2016, this paper constructs the stochastic frontier model of heterogeneity, which can effectively identify the inefficient factors of Chinas petroleum import and measure the efficiency and potential of Chinas petroleum import. The results show that there is a certain efficiency loss in Chinas petroleum import, and the trade efficiency between China and different countries and regions suggests different characteristics, especially the trade efficiency between China and Saudi Arabia, and the efficiency between China and Mongolia, Russia and Kazakhstan. The governance of the source countries of petroleum imports and the regional organization, OPEC, will help to reduce the loss of Chinas petroleum import efficiency, while the regional policy arrangements, such as the Belt and Road Initiative and the WTO, will reduce the uncertainty of the loss of trade efficiency.