1 Evaluation on country environment of Chinese foreign contracted project under The Belt and Road Initiative

XU Jin , CAO Yang , YU Quanhui

2020, 26(3):1-18. DOI: 10.11835/j.issn.1008-5831.jg.2019.05.003

[Abstract](1618) [HTML](1355) [PDF 1.73 M](1855)

Abstract:
External contracting projects are one of the main forms of economic cooperation between China and countries along "The Belt and Road". Strengthening the country environmental research of the contracted projects along the "The Belt and Road" is conducive to reducing risks and improving the success rate. Based on the existing research, new business environment factors and the characteristics of infrastructure contracting projects are taken into consideration. A comprehensive environmental evaluation system for project contracting countries with 6 environmental factors and 33 indicators is constructed and the entropy value method is used to quantitatively study 64 countries' environment of contracting project. Then this paper tests the result of the application of entropy value method with Spearman and clusters comprehensive evaluation value through SPSS 19.0. The empirical evidence shows that:Firstly, the infrastructure environment and economic factors are the most important factors influencing Chinese enterprises' decision of foreign project contracting country selection; Secondly, project contracting environment is very different and imbalance among the countries along "The Belt and Road", it is better in southeast and south Asia, secondary in Central and eastern Europe and West Asia and North Africa, worse in East Asia, Central Asia and the commonwealth of independent states; Lastly, according to the comprehensive evaluation value, the countries' environment of contracting project is divided into four types:good, better, worse, and worst. This study has positive empirical evidence for Chinese construction enterprises to actively develop foreign contracted projects in the countries along "The Belt and Road", and also provides valued reference for the implementation of Chinese "The Belt and Road" and "go out" strategies.

2 Trade effect of the Internet infrastructure in the countries along “The Belt and Road”: Analysis of mediating effect of trade cost and total factor productivity

ZHAO Wei , DENG Fuhua , HUO Weidong

2020, 26(3):19-33. DOI: 10.11835/j.issn.1008-5831.jg.2019.12.005

[Abstract](1513) [HTML](1009) [PDF 1.63 M](2097)

Abstract:
An in-depth study of the trade effects and mechanisms of Internet infrastructure in countries along "The Belt and Road" is important for China to optimize the layout of Internet infrastructure construction in countries along "The Belt and Road", to effectively stimulate trade effects, and to deal with the negative impact of the world trade environment. Based on the perspectives of trade cost and total factor productivity (TFP), this paper constructs panel data between China and 45 countries along "The Belt and Road" from 2007 to 2017, and empirically examines the trade effect of the Internet infrastructure of countries along "The Belt and Road" using the mediation effect model. The overall test results show that the Internet infrastructure of countries along "The Belt and Road" is conducive to bilateral trade between China and those countries, and the trade effect is mainly achieved by reducing trade costs rather than increasing total factor productivity. Heterogeneity test results show that Internet infrastructure has obvious trade effects regardless of the difference in trade direction or economic development of countries along "The Belt and Road". The intermediary effect of trade cost mainly occurs in the import and export trade of developed countries to China, and the intermediary effect of total factor productivity mainly occurs in the export trade of countries to China and the import and export trade of developing countries to China. In the new situation, China should take part in the construction of the Internet infrastructure along "The Belt and Road" and pay attention to the rational layout and grasp the intensity of construction, not only cultivate the new kinetic energy of trade growth, but also optimize the structure of import and export trade.

3 The promoting effect of Confucius Institutes on China's export trade: An empirical analysis based on the countries along “The Belt and Road”

KANG Jijun , ZHANG Mengke , LI Jing

2019, 25(5):1-17. DOI: 10.11835/j.issn.1008-5831.jg.2019.03.001

[Abstract](1049) [HTML](1147) [PDF 2.16 M](1130)

Abstract:
Using China's export trade panel data with 60 trading partners along "The Belt and Road", from the interactive perspective of culture and trade, this paper quantifies cultural communication effects by constructing a comprehensive evaluation index system including five first-level indicators and 13 second-level indicators, and using spatial Dubin model to study the influence of spatio-temporal evolution of Chinese culture promotion by the Confucius Institute on export. Our empirical evidence shows that:Firstly, while the scale of Chinese communication promoting by Confucius Institutes in countries along "The Belt and Road" has risen steadily, but the quality of communication is low, the sustainable development is slow and the comprehensive influence is uneven. The overall potential and quality of promoting communication and exchange between cultures and nations needs to be further developed. Secondly, cross-cultural communication arouse by Confucius Institutes has a positive role in increasing China's exports to the countries along "The Belt and Road". There is not only a significant interaction effect on the countries (regions) in which they are located, but also positive spillover effects on neighboring countries.

4 A study on the efficiency and potential of China's petroleum import under the Belt and Road Initiative

DENG Fuhua , FENG Qianbin , TIAN Lin

2019, 25(5):18-29. DOI: 10.11835/j.issn.1008-5831.jg.2019.03.002

[Abstract](891) [HTML](848) [PDF 1.64 M](970)

Abstract:
At present, when the thought of "reverse globalization" surges, how to improve the efficiency and potential of petroleum import under the Belt and Road Initiative is the key to ensure the energy and economic security of China in the new period. Based on the panel data of China and 42 major petroleum countries and areas during the period from 1998 to 2016, this paper constructs the stochastic frontier model of heterogeneity, which can effectively identify the inefficient factors of China's petroleum import and measure the efficiency and potential of China's petroleum import. The results show that there is a certain efficiency loss in China's petroleum import, and the trade efficiency between China and different countries and regions suggests different characteristics, especially the trade efficiency between China and Saudi Arabia, and the efficiency between China and Mongolia, Russia and Kazakhstan. The governance of the source countries of petroleum imports and the regional organization, OPEC, will help to reduce the loss of China's petroleum import efficiency, while the regional policy arrangements, such as the Belt and Road Initiative and the WTO, will reduce the uncertainty of the loss of trade efficiency.