The demographic effect on saving rate and interest rate:An empirical analysis of income effect
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    Abstract:

    In an intertemporal general equilibrium framework, the economic mechanism of how saving rate and interest rate are affected by shocks of birth or death rates is discussed. Redistributions of consumption within the population is found to be the key driving force, given a small enough elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS<1). Quantitatively, an empirical analysis using cross-national panel data indicates that birth and death rates affect the saving rate (or interest rate) through not identical channels. Birth rate affects saving rate positively, whereas death rate affects it negatively, and the effect of birth rate on saving rate is stronger than that of death rate. By contrast, interest rate is decreasing in the birth rate and increasing in the death rate, and the effect of birth rate on interest rate is smaller than that of death rate.

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钟阳.人口转变对储蓄率及利率的影响:基于收入效应的实证研究[J].重庆大学学报社会科学版,2016,22(2):67~79

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History
  • Received:January 06,2016
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  • Online: April 07,2016
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