GTAP simulation analysis of the economic effects of TPP and RCEP
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F743

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    Abstract:

    TPP and RCEP are seen as two key pathways for advancing Asia-Pacific regional economic cooperation, with the United States withdrew from TPP and RCEP is moving forward firmly, the academic community focus more on RCEP, and RCEP's call for substitute for TPP is growing.Can RCEP replace TPP? Whether it can bring more advantages to China and other countries or regions than TPP? Based on the GTAP model, the paper assumes that both TPP and RCEP are fully liberalized in the trade of goods, and the economic effect of their members and non-members is changed from four aspects:welfare level change, real GDP change, changes in terms of trade, import and export and trade balance.The study found that RCEP could replace TPP as seen from the overall interests of members and non-members.If TPP and RCEP realize the liberalization of trade in goods, the positive economic effect of members is very obvious, and non-members suffer losses in different degrees.If the trade in goods is liberalized at the same time, the economic effect of RCEP members is higher than that of TPP members; China's economic effects gains from RCEP's individual trade liberalization is higher than the economic effects obtained when TPP and RCEP are both established; Regardless of TPP or RCEP, the EU, Hong Kong and China's Taiwan will suffer losses when trade in goods is completely liberalized.In response to the challenges of future global regional economic integration, China should actively promote the global network of free trade zones from three circles.

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张裕仁,郑学党. TPP与RCEP贸易自由化经济效果的GTAP模拟分析[J].重庆大学学报社会科学版,2017,23(5):1~9

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History
  • Received:March 08,2017
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  • Online: July 08,2017
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