Research on the heterogeneity of the impact of RMB exchange rate misalignment and trade barriers on China's export industry
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F74;F752.5;F752.62

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    Abstract:

    Chinese economy faces enormous challenges due to the trade friction and COVID-19 pandemic.Thus,the exchange fluctuation of RMB and trade barriers will affect China's export trade constantly.In order to speed up fostering a new development pattern with the domestic large circulation as the main body and domestic-international dual circulations mutually promoting each other,this paper selects the trade data of WTO and other institutions based on the Harmonized System, and calculates the degree of RMB exchange rate misalignment by constructing the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate(BEER) model.Through constructing fixed-effects panel model, this paper studies the heterogeneous impact of RMB exchange rate misalignment and trade barriers on China's export industry.Results indicate that:RMB exchange rate misalignment has a significant negative impact on China's export trade as a whole, and non-tariff barriers have a significant positive impact on China's export trade, the trade barrier composed of tariff and non-tariff and RMB exchange rate misalignment have a significant inhibitory effect on China's export trade,and the impact on different export industries is heterogeneous. The RMB exchange rate misalignment and non-tariff barriers have a significant negative impact on most industries, the positive and negative effects of RMB exchange rate misalignment and tariff barriers on different industries are heterogeneous. Therefore,it's suggested to improve the RMB exchange rate self-correction mechanism by operating "countercyclical factor", to promote the establishment of RMB foreign exchange derivatives market operation mechanism by guiding export enterprises to understand and use foreign exchange derivatives,to implement the differential trade strategy by strengthening the construction of "oversea location" and cultivating the ASEAN market under the RCEP framework deeply,and to accelerate the industrial transformation and upgrading of export industries by enhancing the capacity for sci-tech independent innovation,which can promote the dual circulation and achieve high-quality development of China's export trade.

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谢非,袁露航.人民币汇率失衡及贸易壁垒对我国出口行业影响异质性研究[J].重庆大学学报社会科学版,2021,27(5):45~61

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  • Received:
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  • Online: November 05,2021
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