Cultural risk assessment of major infrastructure investment under “the Belt and Road” Initiatives
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F279;F125;F283;G05-F

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    Abstract:

    From the "going global" strategy to "the Belt and Road" initiative, foreign investment has gradually become an important measure for China to stimulate economic growth as well as promoting development transformation and building a new pattern of regional governance, and major infrastructure investment plays an increasingly important role in it. Recent years major infrastructure investments have achieved remarkable results, however, we have to face the reality of frequent cultural conflicts and obstructed project construction along "the Belt and Road". In addition, investment companies have insufficient experience as well as inadequate preventive measures towards international operations, they even ignore the existence of cultural risks. In order to overcome the above problems and improve the current cultural risk management research that has not formed a system yet, it is necessary to identify the manifestations of cultural risks and analyze their distribution characteristics to ensure the smooth development of investment activities. The paper firstly identifies 21 cultural risk elements from four dimensions:language, ethnic religion, human environment, and diplomatic relations, through the analysis of typical cases and important documents. Based on the related research results of national risk assessment, the cultural risk index system of major infrastructure investment is constructed. Meanwhile, entropy weight method is used to determine their comprehensive weights. Then the risk levels of 32 countries along "the Belt and Road" are evaluated with TOPSIS model. After in-depth analysis of the evaluation results using SPSS software, a targeted risk prevention strategy is formulated. The main conclusions of the thesis are as follows:1) The main threat of cultural risk. From the perspective of dimensions, language risks and diplomatic relations risks have the greatest impact on major infrastructure investment, followed by humanities environment risks and ethnic and religious risks; from the perspective of risk factors, the project cooperation basis, language products, and the proportion of Chinese in the host country have a significant impact on the development of investment activities. 2) The cultural risk level of countries along the route. From a numerical point of view, it shows an obvious right-biasedness. Except for Singapore and Malaysia, the progress of posting is significantly higher than that of other countries. The overall cultural risk posting progress of countries along "the Belt and Road" fluctuates around an average value of about 0.2. 3) The agglomeration characteristics of countries suitable for investment. From the perspective of spatial distribution, such countries tend to be concentrated. The agglomeration level gradually decreases from Southeast Asia to West Asia and Europe, among which Singapore's investment conditions are significantly better than other countries; the paper further draws a risk map of countries along the route according to the classification results of risk levels, and finds that Jordan, Bangladesh and other exceptional countries do not meet the above. Therefore, combined with the closeness calculation results of cluster analysis, it is found that the distribution law of cultural risk may also be potentially affected by historical evolution and economic level. This paper studies the cultural risks faced by major infrastructure investments under "the Belt and Road" initiative. On the one hand, it improves the identification and assessment methods of cultural risks and helps to build a complete cultural risk management process; on the other hand, it proposes specific measures for cultural risk prevention. Countermeasures are helpful to solve practical problems and provide decision support for investment enterprises.

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向鹏成,蔡奇钢.“一带一路”倡议下重大基础设施投资的文化风险评价研究[J].重庆大学学报社会科学版,2022,28(5):14~31

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  • Received:
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  • Online: November 07,2022
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