Financial market stability under the new development pattern of "dual circulation": Based on the perspective of commodity financialization
Author:
Affiliation:

Clc Number:

F830.9

Fund Project:

  • Article
  • |
  • Figures
  • |
  • Metrics
  • |
  • Reference
  • |
  • Related
  • |
  • Cited by
  • |
  • Materials
  • |
  • Comments
    Abstract:

    In recent years, the phenomenon of "commodity financialization" has been widely concerned in the academic circle, and the stability of the financial market faces many challenges under the new development pattern of "dual circulation". It is of great significance to explore the risk prevention of the financial market from the perspective of commodity financialization to maintain the stable operation of the economy. Firstly, this paper systematically clarifies the influential mechanism of commodity financialization on the stability of Chinese financial market under the new development pattern of "dual circulation". Meanwhile, based on the improved commodity futures pricing model, the marginal effect of the impact of commodity price, supply, and demand on financial market stability are analyzed in detail from the perspective of financialization, and the heterogeneous characteristics in the long and short term, as well as market volatility environment, are compared. Secondly, using the samples of the US financial market from 2000 to the first quarter of 2020 and the Chinese financial market from 2010 to the fourth quarter of 2019, we construct the financialization index and the financial market stability index respectively, and empirically investigate the structural relationship among the financial market stability, commodity price and the degree of financialization through the structural vector autoregression model. Finally, considering the differences in market volatility, especially the impact of "black swan" events of uncertainty such as financial crisis or COVID-19, the threshold effect of the impact of commodity financialization on financial market stability in different market environments is empirically tested. The results show that in the short term, financialization has the greatest impact on the temporary shocks of commodity prices in commodity index markets of both China and the US, and the price level can be restored to equilibrium in each market within 1 to 2 years after the shocks; Financial market stability is significantly affected by commodity financialization, especially in commodity index markets; compared with commodity supply, demand and price, financial market stability is dominated by the degree of commodity financialization in the short term; commodity financialization has a more significant and deeper negative impact on financial market stability in the short term than in the long term; in the long run, financial market stability is dominated by commodity prices, while the impact of commodity financialization is weak; furthermore, the threshold model proves that the degree of commodity financialization has a stronger influence on the short-term stability of financial markets in a high-volatility environment than in the lower one. Accordingly, this paper puts forward the following policy suggestions for Chinese growing commodity futures market: firstly, optimize the system of commitments of traders in the commodity futures market, and strengthen the position identification of financial traders and the monitoring of commodity financialization; Secondly, regulate investors’ positions in an environmentally dependent manner, avoid the "one-size-fits-all" position restrictions, manage financial speculation in the market based on the differentiated policies; thirdly, establish a financial market linkage emergency response mechanism, improve the efficiency of risk identification in the financial market, prevent the spread of financial risks across the market, properly respond to the phenomenon of commodity financialization, and maintain the long-term stability of the financial market.

    Reference
    Related
    Cited by
Get Citation

刘用明,邵航.“双循环”新发展格局下的金融市场稳定性研究——基于大宗商品金融化视角[J].重庆大学学报社会科学版,2022,28(6):14~32

Copy
Share
Article Metrics
  • Abstract:
  • PDF:
  • HTML:
  • Cited by:
History
  • Received:
  • Revised:
  • Adopted:
  • Online: February 03,2023
  • Published: