Multilateral exchange rates, OFDI and energy trade: Empirical analysis based on the traditional energy trade of China with countries along the “Belt and Road”
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F752;F830;F426.2;F832.6

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    Abstract:

    As one of the important economic factors, energy is the cornerstone of national economic stability and development. Affected by multiple factors such as the new crown epidemic, geopolitical risks, and extreme weather, the global energy crisis may further intensify. As the world’s largest energy consumer and net importer, and affected by exchange rate fluctuations and the global energy crisis, China’s traditional energy exports have been structurally unbalanced. The authors select six countries with high traditional energy export volumes, including Australia, the United States, and Russia, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia and Indonesia among the "Belt and Road" cooperation countries, as the research objects, and collate the traditional energy import data of China from these six countries from 2006 to 2021,firstly, introduce the influence factor of multilateral exchange rate fluctuations according to the OFDI trade effect theory, and use the trade gravity model to study the impact mechanism of multilateral exchange rate fluctuations, energy foreign direct investment (OFDI) and international energy strategic cooperation on China’s traditional energy imports. Secondly, based on international investment theory, a test model of multilateral exchange rate fluctuations and energy OFDI two-factor and multi-factor adjustment mechanism on China’s traditional energy imports is constructed, and the adjustment effect of multilateral exchange rate fluctuations on energy OFDI imports is analyzed. Finally, according to the theory of international trade, the comprehensive impact path of exchange rate, investment and energy strategic cooperation on China’s traditional energy imports is analyzed, and the influence of "petrodollar" on China’s traditional energy imports is studied. The results show that multilateral exchange rate fluctuations have a significant inhibitory effect on China’s traditional energy imports, among which the unilateral exchange rate imbalance of RMB has the strongest inhibitory effect, the inhibition effect of bilateral exchange rate fluctuation is the second, and the inhibitory effect of third-party exchange rate fluctuation is the weakest. Energy OFDI has a significant import promotion effect on China’s traditional energy imports, and the construction of international energy pipeline connectivity has a significant role in promoting China’s traditional energy imports. At the same time, the analysis of the adjustment effect of multilateral exchange rate fluctuations and energy OFDI dual factors and multiple factors on China’s traditional energy imports shows that the unilateral exchange rate imbalance of RMB and bilateral exchange rate fluctuations have an enhanced effect on the import promotion effect of energy OFDI, the exchange rate fluctuations of third-party countries have a restraining effect on the import promotion effect of energy OFDI, and the comprehensive interaction of multilateral exchange rate fluctuations has a significant regulating and promoting effect on the import effect of energy OFDI. In the short term, the "petrodollar" still plays an important role in the international traditional energy trade market, and the fluctuation of the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is still a key reference item in international investment decisions. Therefore, China should continue to promote the optimization of energy supply and demand structure, vigorously develop new energy, actively layout and promote the "new energy + RMB" strategy in international trade, empower the green transformation of energy, and help China’s energy security; Promote the "RMB-oil" strategic layout by further expanding the settlement scope and share under the current account of RMB among countries along the "RCEP" and the "Belt and Road"; Deepen international energy trade cooperation by strengthening energy trade dialogue with Russia, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia and other countries, and promote the diversification of China’s energy investment regions; In addition, China should also guide enterprises to follow the concept of "exchange rate neutrality" in energy trade and investment decisions, encourage enterprises to incorporate hedging into daily financial decisions, avoid energy exchange rate risks, and improve the adaptability of enterprises to the new normal of two-way exchange rate fluctuations.

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谢非,王洋.多边汇率、OFDI与能源贸易——基于中国与“一带一路”国家传统能源贸易实证分析[J].重庆大学学报社会科学版,2023,29(6):69~84

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  • Online: January 17,2024
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