Research on the poverty reduction effect of China’s direct investment along the "Belt and Road"
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    Abstract:

    In recent years, China's direct investment in countries along the "Belt and Road" has continued to increase, cooperation areas have continued to expand, and the degree of cooperation has continued to deepen. In this context, does China's OFDI have a good poverty reduction effect on countries along the "Belt and Road"? Do poverty reduction effects vary heterogeneously by country attribute? And through what channels and mechanisms is this poverty reduction effect transmitted? The answers to this series of questions are of great significance to both theory and practice. Based on the panel data of 63 countries along the "Belt and Road" from 2009 to 2019,the 63 countries along the route have been broadly divided into six sectors, according to the regions to which they belong. This paper constructs an econometric model related to the poverty reduction effect of foreign direct investment, empirically analyzes the poverty reduction effect of China's direct investment in the host country, and adopts the method of intermediary effect test to explore the transmission mechanism of the poverty reduction effect of direct investment. Studies have shown that China's foreign direct investment has a significant effect on reducing the poverty rate of the host country, bringing a strong "pull" to local economic development, significantly contributing to the reduction of poverty in the countries along the "Belt and Road". Heterogeneity analysis shows that: There is no clear geographic bias in this poverty reduction effect, nor does it take the national economic development level as an absolute limit. Measuring cultural distance using "whether there is a Confucius Institute" as a proxy variable, the effect is better in countries that are "culturally close" and not significant in countries that are "culturally distant". The mediation effects analysis shows that: In the process of China's OFDI playing a role in poverty reduction, job creation and infrastructure construction have assumed part of the function of intermediary effects. Through these two mechanisms, the self-generating capacity of the host economy is effectively enhanced. Through the "dual channels" of job creation and infrastructure improvement, China has enhanced the self-sustainability of host countries and brought a continuous impetus to the sustainable development of the local economy, which has entered into a virtuous cycle of development. Autonomous poverty reduction can be achieved by focusing on capacity building for poor groups and tapping the comparative advantages of potential markets in poor areas according to local conditions. This "blood-creation" approach to poverty reduction is more long-term and sustainable than the "blood transfusion" approach, which is oriented towards enhancing self-reliance. In order to avoid endogeneity problems in the model from influencing the conclusions of the study, re-regressing the first-order lagged term of China's OFDI as an instrumental variable, the original conclusions are still valid; In order to ensure the reliability of the conclusions of the empirical analysis of the article, this paper adopts the method of replacing the core explanatory variables and the explanatory variables respectively to carry out the robustness test, and the final conclusions of the study are robust. Based on the above analysis, the article proposes to further optimize the flow of China's OFDI and promote poverty reduction cooperation by taking job creation as the basis, talent training as the source and infrastructure construction as the priority.

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李玉娟,董子婧.中国对“一带一路”沿线直接投资的减贫效应研究[J].重庆大学学报社会科学版,2024,(1):71~86

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  • Received:
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  • Online: March 15,2024
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