According to the analysis of existing test data, the stress influence coefficient and water-cement ratio influence coefficient in the existing concrete carbonation depth forecasting models are modified and improved. Based on the reliability analysis, the rule of deterioration life is presented. The analysis shows that the rate of carbonation of concrete is accelerated or restricted at the status of tensile or compressive stress, respectively. Especially with the increase of the level of tensile stress, the carbonation rate of concrete will become faster and faster. According to the results of reliability analysis, the relation between probability and reliability of the concrete deterioration is one-to-one corresponsive, meanwhile, the concrete cover thicknesses and stress levels have great influences on the durability life of concrete structures. And with the same reliability, the time of deterioration of concrete decreases with a higher stress levels and a less cover thickness.