In order to realize the predictive function of BIM technology, the reliability theory and theoretical probability method are utilized to judge the uncertainty which exists in the process of construction. Meanwhile, the complicated relationship between construction schedule and prediction model is analyze, the random prediction model for construction schedule is established as well. Particularly, the influencing condition about a single factor in the process of construction is taken into consideration. Determinate model and random model for construction time as well as reliability analysis method for the construction time prediction which is based on a single influencing factor are studied .At the same time, The integrated management method of reliability prediction about construction schedule which is on basis of BIM management platform is discussed. The case study shows that the proposed method has delivered dramatic results to the control of construction schedule.