气候变暖已对建筑全生命周期的运行状况产生了不可忽略的影响，准确评估气候变化下的建筑能耗对建筑方案设计和既有建筑的节能改造具有重要意义。进行气候变化下建筑能耗的精确预测，必须拥有未来的逐时气象数据。以寒冷地区北京和夏热冬暖地区广州为研究对象，将挑选的两个城市典型气象年为基线气候，结合全球模式下的预测气象数据，应用变形法修正TMY的气象参数，得到直至本世纪末的10个节点年逐时气象文件，并进行了全年能耗模拟，预估了两个城市的办公建筑在气候变化下建筑能耗的变化趋势。结果表明：在两种预测排放情景下，干球温度、含湿量和太阳辐射均呈增加趋势；北京采暖能耗显著降低、制冷能耗增加，总能耗减少，广州采暖能耗降低、制冷能耗显著增加，总能耗增加。

Climate warming has a non-negligible impact on the whole life of building. Accurate assessment of building energy consumption under climate change is important for energy-saving building design and existing building. Climate is the basis for building energy simulation. The global warming will cause the change of building energy consumption. In order to study the impact of climate change on the build energy consumption, the future hourly meteorological parameters are necessary. Based on the latest prediction, the ‘morphing’ methodology is utilized for transforming current Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) into future hourly meteorological file. A high office building is simulated respectively in two different regions Beijing and Guangzhou. The results show that the dry-bulb temperature, moisture content and the solar radiation have an increased trend. In Beijing, the reduction in heating consumption outweighed the increase in summer cooling, which led to the increase of the total energy consumption, but Guangzhou is opposite.

省部级自然科学基金（2014KW17、教外司留[2014]1685号）；国家杰出青年科学基金（51325803）；国家自然科学基金（2010100106）