钻爆法施工隧道塌方风险量化评估模型及其应用
CSTR:
作者:
中图分类号:

U455.6

基金项目:

云南省交通运输厅科技创新及示范项目(云交科教便[2019]36号);云南省科技和人才平台计划(2017HC025)


Establishment and application of a quantitative assessment model of collapse risk in tunnel excavated by drilling and blasting method
Author:
  • 摘要
  • | |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献 [30]
  • |
  • 相似文献 [20]
  • | | |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    受地质条件和施工等因素的影响,钻爆法施工中塌方事故频频出现,造成人员伤亡、机械损坏、工期延误等不良后果。目前的风险评估方法多以定性为主,难以继续满足隧道安全风险管理的需要。根据风险定义,考虑围岩物理力学参数的变异性,应用Monte-Carlo方法和数值分析实现隧道塌方发生概率的定量化分析,并基于普氏平衡拱理论实现隧道塌方规模的定量化预测;结合施工人员、机械的时空分布特征及其易损性实现人员伤亡风险、工期延误风险和经济损失风险的定量化计算;利用ALARP原则和F-N曲线建立可量化的风险接受准则,实现塌方风险的定量化评估。结合工程案例,验证了模型在隧道等地下工程塌方风险定量化评估中的适用性。

    Abstract:

    Collapse always frequently occurs during the construction of tunnels due to the unfavorable geological conditions or other factors such as the excavation method, causing casualties, equipment damage, time delay or other adverse consequences. However, the current qualitative assessment method cannot satisfy the needs of project risk management.Hence, a novel quantitative assessment model of collapse risk is developed. Considering the variability of physical and mechanical parameters of surrounding rock, the probability of collapse is obtained by the Monte-Carlo method combined with the numerical method.The relevant zone of collapse is predicted by Protodyakonov's theory.With the predicted probability and zone of collapse, the risk of casualties, time delay and economic loss is analyzed quantitatively via introduction of spatiotemporal distribution index and vulnerability index.The quantitative assessment of collapse risk is realized by quantifiable risk acceptance criterion based on the way of ALARP principle and F-N curve.Finally, validated by engineering case history, the operability and applicability of the developed risk quantitative assessment model is illustrated.

    参考文献
    [1] 吕擎峰, 霍振升, 赵本海, 等. 基于模糊层次和后果当量法的隧道塌方风险评估[J]. 隧道建设(中英文), 2018, 38(Sup2):31-38. LYU Q F, HUO Z S, ZHAO B H, et al. Risk assessment of tunnel collapse based on fuzzy hierarchy and consequences equivalent method[J]. Tunnel Construction, 2018, 38(Sup2):31-38. (in Chinese)
    [2] XU Z G, CAI N G, LI X F, et al. Risk assessment of loess tunnel collapse during construction based on an attribute recognition model[J]. Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment, 2021, 80(8):6205-6220.
    [3] 黄宏伟, 张东明. 长大隧道工程结构安全风险精细化感控研究进展[J]. 中国公路学报, 2020, 33(12):46-61. HUANG H W, ZHANG D M. Recent progresson refined sensing and control of safety and risk of long and large-scale tunnel lining structures[J]. China Journal of Highway and Transport, 2020, 33(12):46-61. (in Chinese)
    [4] 陈舞, 张国华, 王浩, 等. 基于T-S模糊故障树的钻爆法施工隧道坍塌可能性评价[J]. 岩土力学, 2019, 40(Sup1):319-328. CHEN W, ZHANG G H, WANG H, et al. Evaluation of possibility of tunnel collapse by drilling and blasting method based on T-S fuzzy fault tree[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics, 2019, 40(Sup1):319-328. (in Chinese)
    [5] DEGN ESKESEN S, TENGBORG P, KAMPMANN J, et al. Guidelines for tunnelling risk management:International tunnelling association, working group No. 2[J]. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, 2004, 19(3):217-237.
    [6] OU G Z, JIAO Y Y, ZHANG G H, et al. Collapse risk assessment of deep-buried tunnel during construction and its application[J]. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, 2021, 115:104019.
    [7] 陈龙, 黄宏伟. 岩石隧道工程风险浅析[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2005, 24(1):110-115. CHEN L, HUANG H W. Risk analysis of rock tunnel engineering[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering, 2005, 24(1):110-115. (in Chinese)
    [8] 王燕, 黄宏伟, 薛亚东. 钻爆法施工隧道塌方风险分析[J]. 沈阳建筑大学学报(自然科学版), 2009, 25(1):23-27. WANG Y, HUANG H W, XUE Y D. Risk analysis of collapse for tunnels constructed by drill and blast method[J]. Journal of Shenyang Jianzhu University (Natural Science), 2009, 25(1):23-27. (in Chinese)
    [9] 李志强, 杨涛. 浅埋黏土层大跨度隧道施工技术与塌方风险分析[J]. 公路交通科技, 2020, 37(2):116-122. LI Z Q, YANG T. Construction technology of large-span tunnel in shallow clay stratum and collapse risk analysis[J]. Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development, 2020, 37(2):116-122. (in Chinese)
    [10] 李燕,靳春玲,贡力,等. 基于熵理论[XC半字线.tif,JZ]可拓云模型的引水隧洞塌方风险评价[J]. 长江科学院院报, 2021. LI Y, JIN C L, GONG L, et al. Risk assessment of diversion tunnel collapse based on entropy theory -extension cloud method[J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, 2021. (in Chinese)
    [11] MA C H, YANG J, CHENG L, et al. Research on slope reliability analysis using multi-kernel relevance vector machine and advanced first-order second-moment method[J/OL]. Engineering with Computers. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00366-021-01331-9
    [12] ALIZADEH M, SADRAMELI S M. Indoor thermal comfort assessment using PCM based storage system integrated with ceiling fan ventilation:Experimental design and response surface approach[J]. Energy and Buildings, 2019, 188/189:297-313.
    [13] FAN C L, LIAO Y D, ZHOU G, et al. Improving cooling load prediction reliability for HVAC system using Monte-Carlo simulation to deal with uncertainties in input variables[J]. Energy and Buildings, 2020, 226:110372.
    [14] GRIFFITHS D V, FENTON G A. Probabilistic slope stability analysis by finite elements[J]. Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, 2004, 130(5):507-518.
    [15] TSCHUCHNIGG F, SCHWEIGER H F, SLOAN S W. Slope stability analysis by means of finite element limit analysis and finite element strength reduction techniques. PartⅡ:Back analyses of a case history[J]. Computers and Geotechnics, 2015, 70:178-189.
    [16] 盛骤, 谢式千, 潘承毅. 概率论与数理统计[M]. 4版. 北京:高等教育出版社, 2008. SHENG Z, XIE S Q, PAN C Y.Probability theory and mathematical statistics[M]. 4th edtion. Beijing:Higher Education Press, 2008. (in Chinese)
    [17] 肖明清, 徐晨. 深埋小净距隧道围岩压力代表值探讨[J]. 铁道工程学报, 2020, 37(10):83-89. XIAO M Q, XU C. Discussion on representative value of surrounding rock pressure in deep buried neighborhood tunnel[J]. Journal of Railway Engineering Society, 2020, 37(10):83-89. (in Chinese)
    [18] 冯卫星,况勇,陈建军. 隧道塌方案例分析[M]. 成都:西南交通大学出版社, 2001. FENG W X, KUANG Y, CHEN J J. Case analysis of tunnel collapse[M]. Chengdu:Southwest Jiaotong University Press, 2001. (in Chinese)
    [19] MEYER A, NAGPAL R. Permutations and combinations:Mathematics for computer science. Course notes 9[M]. Massachusetts Institute of Technology:2002.
    [20] 企业职工伤亡事故分类:GB 6441-1986[S]. 北京:中国标准出版社, 1986. The classification for casualty accidents of enterprise staff and workers:GB 6441-1986[S]. Beijing:Standards Press of China, 1986. (in Chinese)
    [21] 事故伤害损失工作日标准:GB/T 15499-1995[S]. 北京:中国标准出版社, 1995. The lost workdays STANDARD for injury accidents:GB/T 15499-1995[S]. Beijing:Standards Press of China, 1995. (in Chinese)
    [22] 李志宏. 基于全寿命期风险分析的路堑与隧道方案决策研究[D]. 上海:同济大学, 2010. LI Z H. Decision making between cut-slope and shallow tunnel alternatives based on life cycle risk analysis[D]. Shanghai:Tongji University, 2010. (in Chinese)
    [23] LI Z H, HUANG H W, XUE Y D. Cut-slope versus shallow tunnel:Risk-based decision making framework for alternative selection[J]. Engineering Geology, 2014, 176:11-23.
    [24] GONG Y H, NIU Z Y, BAI T Y. Societal risk acceptance criteria for gas distribution pipelines based on incident data from the United States[J]. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 2020, 63:104002.
    [25] 仝跃, 黄宏伟, 张东明, 等. 高放废物处置地下实验室建设期风险接受准则[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2017, 27(2):151-156. TONG Y, HUANG H W, ZHANG D M, et al. Research on risk acceptance criteria for construction of HLW geological disposal URL[J].China Safety Science Journal, 2017, 27(2):151-156. (in Chinese)
    [26] FARMER F R. Siting criteria-a new approach[C]//Proceedings of the IAEA symposium on nuclear siting, 1967:303-29.
    [27] JONKMAN S N, VAN GELDER P H A J M,VRIJLING J K. An overview of quantitative risk measures for loss of life and economic damage[J]. Journal of Hazardous Materials, 2003, 99(1):1-30.
    [28] 刘佑荣, 唐辉明. 岩体力学[M]. 北京:化学工业出版社, 2009. LIU Y R, TANG H M. Rock mechanics[M]. Beijing:Chemical Industry Press, 2009. (in Chinese)
    [29] 闫军涛, 胡潇, 刘波. 上软下硬复合地层盾构隧洞开挖面稳定性研究[J]. 隧道建设(中英文), 2020, 40(2):223-230. YAN J T, HU X, LIU B. Stability of shield tunnel excavation face in upper-soft and lower-hard composite strata[J]. Tunnel Construction, 2020, 40(2):223-230. (in Chinese)
    [30] 仝跃, 陈亮, 黄宏伟. 高放废物地下实验室北山预选区岩爆风险预测[J]. 地下空间与工程学报, 2016, 12(4):1055-1063. TONG Y, CHEN L, HUANG H W. Risk prediction on rockburstin Beishan pre-selected area for underground research laboratory of high-level radioactive waste[J]. Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering, 2016, 12(4):1055-1063. (in Chinese)
    引证文献
    网友评论
    网友评论
    分享到微博
    发 布
引用本文

仝跃,岳瑶,黄宏伟,周应新,雷华,段晓彬.钻爆法施工隧道塌方风险量化评估模型及其应用[J].土木与环境工程学报(中英文),2022,44(5):46-56. TONG Yue, YUE Yao, HUANG Hongwei, ZHOU Yingxin, LEI Hua, DUAN Xiaobin. Establishment and application of a quantitative assessment model of collapse risk in tunnel excavated by drilling and blasting method[J]. JOURNAL OF CIVIL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING,2022,44(5):46-56.10.11835/j. issn.2096-6717.2021.239

复制
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:433
  • 下载次数: 1329
  • HTML阅读次数: 716
  • 引用次数: 0
历史
  • 收稿日期:2021-07-16
  • 在线发布日期: 2022-06-28
文章二维码