建筑物化阶段CO2排放及其不确定性分析
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作者单位:

中铁十八局集团第四工程有限公司,天津 300222

作者简介:

马骏(1981- ),男,高级工程师,主要从事城市轨道交通施工技术研究,E-mail: xiaohuiwygs@163.com。
brief:MA Jun (1981- ), senior engineer, main research interest: urban rail construction technology, E-mail: xiaohuiwygs@163.com.

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中图分类号:

X506

基金项目:

中国铁建股份有限公司科技研究开发计划(2020-C64)


Analysis of CO2 emissions and uncertainties in the embodied stage of buildings
Author:
Affiliation:

China Railway 18th Bureau Group Fourth Engineering Co., Ltd., Tianjin 300222, P. R. China

Fund Project:

Science and Technology Research and Development Program of China Railway Construction Co. (No. 2020-C64)

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    摘要:

    CO2是导致气候变暖的主要物质之一,而建筑行业的碳排放量占世界碳排放总量的25%左右。在建筑生命周期内,年均CO2排放最多的阶段为物化阶段,对建筑物化阶段的碳排放进行量化具有重要的研究意义。考虑排放清单等数据受人为因素及技术水平的限制,会出现一定的变异性,研究采用不确定性分析方法。将建筑按分部分项工程进行分解,结合具体的单元工序对物化阶段的CO2排放进行量化建模,进而给出减排中最需关注的单元工序。通过案例分析发现,建筑物化阶段的碳减排重点是材料生产,其CO2排放量占比达到93%;其次,在不同工序中,减排重点为土建工程,其碳排放占总体的85%;在碳排放量化过程中,对数据和情景两类不确定度进行计算。根据数据不确定度的结果可知,物化阶段CO2排放总量的变异系数为0.3%,结果数据可信度较高。根据情景不确定度的结果可知,运输阶段改变运距及柴油类型可减排39%,施工阶段改变用电类型可减排27%。

    Abstract:

    One of the main substance that contributes to climate warming is CO2, and the construction industry accounts for about 25% of the world's total CO2 emissions. During the life cycle of a building, the stage with the largest average annual CO2 emissions is the embodied stage. Therefore, it is important to study CO2 emissions from the embodied stage of buildings. At the same time, the uncertainty analysis method was used because of the partial variability of data such as emission inventories due to human factors and the limitations of the technology level. In this paper, we decompose the building by sub-projects, quantify the CO2 emissions of the embodied stage by combining specific unit processes, and then give the unit processes that need the most attention in emission reduction. Through the case study, it is found that the focus of carbon emission reduction in the embodied stage of the building is the material production phase, which accounts for 93% of CO2 emissions. Next, among the different processes, the focus of emission reduction is civil engineering, whose carbon emissions account for 85% of the overall. Two types of uncertainties, data and scenario, are also calculated in the carbon emission quantification process. According to the results of data uncertainty, it can be seen that the coefficient of variation of the total CO2 emissions in the embodied stage is 0.3%, and the confidence of the result data is high. According to the results of the scenario uncertainty, it is known that changing the distance and type of diesel fuel in the transportation stage can reduce carbon emissions by 39%, and changing the type of electricity used in the construction stage can reduce emissions by 27%.

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马骏.建筑物化阶段CO2排放及其不确定性分析[J].土木与环境工程学报(中英文),2022,44(6):209-218. MA Jun. Analysis of CO2 emissions and uncertainties in the embodied stage of buildings[J]. JOURNAL OF CIVIL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING,2022,44(6):209-218.10.11835/j. issn.2096-6717.2021.243

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  • 收稿日期:2021-08-11
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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-11-09
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