随机降雨下考虑参数空间变异性的边坡稳定概率分析
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作者单位:

南昌工程学院 水利工程学院;水利水电工程结构安全江西省重点实验室,南昌 330099

作者简介:

曾祥薇(2000- ),女,主要从事岩土工程稳定概率分析研究,E-mail: xiangwei.zeng@foxmail.com。
ZENG Xiangwei (2000- ), main research interest: probabilistic stability analysis in geotechnical engineering, E-mail: xiangwei.zeng@foxmail.com.

通讯作者:

潘敏,女,博士,E-mail:panmin@nit.edu.cn。

中图分类号:

P642.22

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金(52378344);江西省自然科学基金(20224BAB204076、20242BAB23045);赣鄱俊才支持计划·青年科技人才托举项目(2023QT08)


Probabilistic stability analysis of slope considering spatial variability of parameters under random rainfall
Author:
Affiliation:

School of Hydraulic Engineering; Jiangxi Key Laboratory of Structural Safety of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Nanchang Institute of Technology, Nanchang 330099, P. R. China

Fund Project:

National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 52378344); Natural Science Foundation of Jiangxi Province (Nos. 20224BAB204076, 20242BAB23045); The Young Scientific and Technological Talents Sponsorship Project in Ganpo Juncai Support Program (No. 2023QT08)

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    摘要:

    准确地进行降雨作用下边坡稳定概率的分析需综合考虑降雨的随机性和土体参数的空间变异性,但现有研究通常仅考虑其中一种因素对边坡稳定性的影响。提出同时考虑两种因素作用的边坡稳定概率分析方法,采用Karhunen-Loève展开法模拟土体参数的空间变异性,利用有界随机级联模型模拟降雨随机性,将生成的降雨时间序列作为边坡的上边界条件,进行渗流和稳定性分析,进而采用拉丁超立方抽样(LHS)方法计算边坡失效概率。以江西省吉安市遂川县卷旋村滑坡为例进行分析研究,结果表明:同时考虑随机降雨和土体参数空间变异性所得边坡稳定概率分析结果与工程实际相符;边坡顶部梯田储水的持续下渗对边坡孔隙水压力的影响范围逐渐增大,而孔隙水压力的上升幅度逐渐减小,最终趋近于零;对比降雨入渗,降雨重分布对边坡稳定性的影响较小。

    Abstract:

    Accurate probabilistic stability analysis of slope under rainfall effects requires a comprehensive consideration of both the randomness of rainfall and the spatial variability of soil parameters. However, existing studies typically focus on only one of these factors. To address this, a method for probabilistic stability analysis of slope that simultaneously considers both factors has been proposed. The Karhunen-Loève expansion method is employed to simulate the spatial variability of soil parameters, while a bounded random cascade model is used to simulate the randomness of rainfall. The generated rainfall time series is then applied as the upper boundary condition for the seepage and stability analysis of the slope, followed by the calculation of slope failure probability using the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method. Analysis is conducted using the landslide in Juanxuan Village, Suichuan County, Ji’an City, Jiangxi Province, as a case study. The results indicate that the probability analysis results of slope stability obtained by considering both random rainfall and spatial variability of soil parameters are consistent with engineering practice. The continuous infiltration of water stored in the terraced fields at the top of the slope gradually expands the influential range of the slope’s pore water pressure of the slope, while the increase in pore water pressure gradually diminishes, ultimately approaching zero. In comparison to rainfall infiltration, the influ of rainfall redistribution on slope stability is marginal.

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曾祥薇,潘敏,邓志平,甘建军,郑克红.随机降雨下考虑参数空间变异性的边坡稳定概率分析[J].土木与环境工程学报(中英文),2025,47(6):21-31. ZENG Xiangwei, PAN Min, DENG Zhiping, GAN Jianjun, ZHENG Kehong. Probabilistic stability analysis of slope considering spatial variability of parameters under random rainfall[J]. JOURNAL OF CIVIL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING,2025,47(6):21-31.10.11835/j. issn.2096-6717.2025.041

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  • 收稿日期:2024-12-03
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-12-17
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