探索和研究在山区公路建设中不可避免存在的边坡和由此引起的风险问题，是我国山区公路建设的现实性需要，因此开展山区斜坡地段安全风险评价具有重要的理论和现实意义。以地质灾害风险评估方法为基础，开展十堰至白河公路泰山沟隧道进口边坡安全风险评价研究，采用Monte Carlo模拟方法得到正常工况和非正常工况Ⅰ条件下边坡的破坏概率，并针对边坡影响范围内的承灾体进行易损性分析，通过风险分析方法得出边坡可能的经济损失价值和人口伤亡状况。结果表明：泰山沟隧道进口边坡在天然工况条件下风险较小，在接受范围之类；但在非正常工况Ⅰ条件下风险较大，必须采取风险处理措施降低风险并加强监测，特别需在施工过程和不利自然条件下对边坡变形情况加强监测，为十堰至白河公路边坡防护设计和安全运行提供指导。

The realistic needs of mountainous highway construction in China are explored and studied on risk problem, which is inevitably exist in the mountain highway construction, otherwise, safety risk assessment of mountainous highway slope has important theoretical and practical significance. Highway slope safety risk prediction and evaluation methods are established which based on geological hazard risk assessment methodology. Safety risk assessment for Taishangou tunnel entrance slope of Shiyan to Baihe highway is studied by risk evaluation method of geological hazard. Monte Carlo simulation is used to get the stability of the slope probability of failure under the conditions of normal operation and abnormal conditions. And the vulnerability for the part of slope within the affected areas is analyzed. Possible economic loss and population casualties are obtained through the risk calculation formula. The results show that: Taishangou tunnel entrance slope is less risk in the natural conditions under the conditions of the acceptable range class; but slope is higher risk in non-normal conditions, management measures must be taken to reduce risk and to strengthen monitoring, particularly to strengthen the monitoring of slope deformation in the construction process and adverse natural conditions. The result is provided guidance for slope protection and safe operation of Shiyan to Baihe highway.

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