1.Tongji University;2.China Energy Engineering Group Guangdong Electric Power Design Institute Co., Ltd.
National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41672276); The Key Innovation Team Program of MOST of China (No. 2016RA4059)
Reasonable liquefaction assessment of construction site is the basis of reducing liquefaction hazard. The current Chinese seismic design code evaluates the liquefaction potential by comparing the critical value of standard penetration test blow count with the measured value of standard penetration test blow count. However, due to the significant uncertainties in the process of establishing empirical criteria, this deterministic method is not an accurate index to evaluate the liquefaction potential. In this paper, the maximum likelihood method is used to calibrate the four generalized linear models based on the Chinese mainland liquefaction database, and four probabilistic evaluation models of soil liquefaction potential are established. The results show that the four generalized linear models differ significantly when the liquefaction probability is small, and the prediction results of the four models are similar when the liquefaction probability is between 30% and 70%. Comparison of the models shows that the Log-log model fits the database best. The calculation formulas of liquefaction probability and the critical value of standard penetration test blow count under specified liquefaction probability based on the Log-log model are given. The results of verification analysis show that the verification success ratio of the proposed liquefaction probability evaluation model is higher than the current Chinese seismic design code.