联合鲸鱼算法和遗传算法优化GRNN预测斜拉索覆冰厚度
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1.三峡大学;2.武汉工程大学

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中图分类号:

U448.27;U441.3

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国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)


Combined Whale Optimization Algorithm and Genetic Algorithm to Optimize GRNN for Predicting Stayed Cable Icing Thickness
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1.College of Civil Engineering &2.Architecture, China Three Gorges University;3.Wuhan Institute of Technology

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    摘要:

    为了预测冬季易结冰区斜拉索覆冰增长,首先运用灰色关联分析方法,分析了斜拉索倾角、温度、湿度、风速、降雨量及气压对斜拉索覆冰厚度的关联影响,明确了各影响因素的相关性大小,剔除弱相关性因素。然后联合遗传算法(GA)和鲸鱼算法(WOA)选择最优光滑因子,提出了一种WOA-GA算法优化广义回归神经网络(GRNN)的斜拉索覆冰厚度预测方法。其特点是以输出值与实际值均方差作为适应度函数,计算每个粒子的适应度值;将GA算法的交叉和变异算子引入WOA算法,同时借助权重更新策略,提升全局寻优的能力,避免WOA算法陷入局部最优解;最后经过迭代寻优,输出最小适应度值对应的光滑因子,构建GRNN预测模型。结果表明:环境温度相关性最高,其次是倾角、降水量、风速、相对湿度,气压关联度最小,呈弱相关性;相比于传统的GRNN、WOA-GRNN、PSO-GA-GRNN模型,联合鲸鱼算法和遗传算法优化的GRNN覆冰预测模型精度较高,其平均绝对误差百分比仅为3.58%,均方根误差为0.58mm;采用敏感性分析法,评价影响因素对模型精度的影响,发现温度对模型影响程度最大,其次是拉索倾角。

    Abstract:

    In order to grasp the icing growth characteristics of stay cables in the ice prone area in winter, the grey correlation analysis method is used to analyze the correlation effects of inclination angle, temperature, humidity, wind speed, rainfall and air pressure on the icing thickness of stay cables, and the correlation of each influencing factor is determined, and the weak correlation factors are eliminated. Then, the genetic algorithm (GA) and the whale algorithm (WOA) are combined to select the optimal smoothing factor, and a WOA-GA Optimized Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN) method is proposed to predict the icing thickness of stay cables. Its characteristic is to take the mean square deviation of output value and actual value as fitness function, calculate the fitness value of each particle; introduce the crossover and mutation operator of GA algorithm into WOA algorithm, at the same time, with the help of weight update strategy, improve the ability of global optimization, avoid WOA algorithm falling into local optimal solution; finally, through iterative optimization, output the smooth factor corresponding to the minimum fitness value, build GRNN pre optimization model Measurement model. The results show that the correlation of ambient temperature is the highest, followed by dip angle, precipitation, wind speed and relative humidity, and the correlation of atmospheric pressure is the lowest, showing weak correlation; compared with the traditional GRNN, WOA-GRNN and PSO-GA-GRNN models, the GRNN icing prediction model optimized by whale algorithm and genetic algorithm has high accuracy, with the average mean absolute percentage error of 3.58% and root mean square error of 0.58mm ;The sensitivity analysis method is used to evaluate the influence of the influence factors on the accuracy of the model. It is found that the temperature has the greatest influence on the model, followed by the cable inclination.

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  • 收稿日期:2021-03-16
  • 最后修改日期:2021-07-05
  • 录用日期:2021-07-30
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