钻爆法施工隧道塌方风险量化评估模型及其应用研究
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作者单位:

1.云南省交通规划设计研究院有限公司;2.云南交通职业技术学院;3.同济大学;4.云南交通投资建设集团有限公司;5.云南交投集团云岭建设有限公司

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中图分类号:

TU714

基金项目:

云南省交通运输厅科技创新及示范项目(云交科教便[2019]36号)


Establishment of a quantitative assessment model of collapse risk in tunnel excavated by the drilling and blasting method and its application
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Affiliation:

1.Broadvision Engineering Consultants;2.Yunnan Communications Vocational and Technical College;3.Department of Geotechnical Engineering,Tongji University;4.Yunnan Communications Investment Construction Group Co,Ltd;5.YCIC Yunling Construction Co,Ltd

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    摘要:

    钻爆法被广泛应用于隧道等地下工程的建设中。受地质条件和施工等因素的影响,塌方事故频频出现,多造成人员伤亡、机械损坏、工期延误等不良后果。然而目前的风险评估方法多以定性为主,难以继续满足隧道安全风险管理的需要。鉴于此,根据风险定义,考虑围岩物理力学参数的变异性,应用Monte-Carlo方法和数值分析实现隧道塌方发生概率的定量化分析,并基于普氏平衡拱理论实现隧道塌方规模的定量化预测;结合施工人员、机械的时空分布特征及其易损性实现人员伤亡风险、工期延误风险和经济损失风险的定量化计算;利用ALARP原则和F-N曲线建立可量化的风险接受准则,实现塌方风险的定量化评估。最后,结合具体工程案例说明所建立的风险量化评估模型可以为隧道等地下工程的塌方风险的定量化评估提供一定的借鉴和指导。

    Abstract:

    Drilling and blasting method is widely used in the construction of tunnels or other underground projects. Collapse always occurs during the construction of tunnels due to the unfavorable geological conditions or other factors such as the excavation method, causing casualties, equipment damage, time delay or other adverse consequences. However, the current qualitative assessment method can not continue to satisfy the needs of project risk management. Hence, a quantitative assessment model of collapse risk is developed. Considering the variability of physical and mechanical parameters of surrounding rock, the probability of collapse is obtained by the Monte-Carlo method combined with the numerical method. The related scope of collapse is predicted by Protodyakonov"s theory. With the predicted probability and scope of collapse, the risk of casualties, time delay and economic loss is analyzed quantitatively through the introduction of spatiotemporal distribution index and vulnerability index. The quantitative assessment of collapse risk is realized by the quantifiable risk acceptance criterion based on the way of ALARP principle and F-N curve. Finally, with a specific engineering case, the operability and applicability of the developed risk quantitative assessment model is illustrated.

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  • 收稿日期:2021-07-16
  • 最后修改日期:2021-09-02
  • 录用日期:2021-10-15
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