目前，库水位变化和降雨联合作用下的边坡稳定分析常采用确定性的分析方法，然而岩土体参数具有天然的空间变异性，传统的确定性分析方法无法准确评估边坡的稳定性。为此，本文以白鹤滩库区黑水河岸坡为例，基于实测降雨和库水位数据，分析了1年周期内库水位变化和降雨联合作用下的边坡稳定性。首先，通过确定性的分析，确定了3种最不利工况。在此基础上，进一步考虑有效黏聚力c′、有效内摩擦角φ′、饱和渗透系数ks的空间变异性，利用随机有限差分法（RFDM）对比了平稳随机场和非平稳随机场对边坡可靠度分析结果的影响规律。结果表明，相较于降雨入渗，库水位涨落对边坡稳定性起着关键性作用，最小安全系数出现在库水位快速下降期，且降雨和库水位的联合作用会显著增大边坡的失效概率和滑动体积。此外，在对边坡稳定性开展随机分析时，应当考虑岩土体参数随深度变化的特性，否则将会低估边坡的稳定性。

Currently, the slope stability analysis under the combined effects of reservoir water level and rainfall is estimated commonly via the deterministic analysis methods. However, these methods cannot accurately evaluate the slope stability due to the inherent spatial variability of geotechnical parameters. Therefore, in this study, the slope stability influenced by reservoir water level and rainfall is analyzed based on the monitored data during an annual cycle of rainfall and reservoir water level, taking the bank slope of Heishui River in Baihetan reservoir area as an example. Firstly, three most unfavorable cases are determined through deterministic analysis. Accordingly, the influences of stationary and non-stationary random fields on the results of slope reliability analysis are compared using the stochastic finite difference method (RFDM), considering the spatial variability of effective cohesion c′、effective friction angle φ′ and saturated permeability coefficient ks, respectively. Results show that, compared with the rainfall infiltration, the reservoir water level fluctuation plays a crucial role in slope stability, and the minimum safety factor occurs during the rapid drawdown. Meanwhile, the combined effects of rainfall and reservoir water level will significantly increase the slope failure probability and sliding volume. In addition, the depth-dependent characteristics of geotechnical parameters require to be considered when conducting stochastic analyses of slope stability, otherwise the slope stability will be underestimated.

重庆市教委科技攻关项目(HZ2021001)；四川沿江攀宁高速公路有限公司(2018-ZL-01)；岩溶地区码头灌注桩施工技术与安全评价研究(H20230330)