重庆直辖十年来生态足迹的动态分析及预测
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X22

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重庆市科技计划


Dynamic Analysis and Forecast of Ecological Footprint in Chongqing during the Initial Ten Years Directly under Central Government Administration
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    摘要:

    值重庆直辖十周年之际,以相关的统计数据为基础,运用生态足迹理论,动态计算了重庆直辖十年来的生态足迹,并作出了预测。结果表明,研究期内人均生态足迹由1.376749 hm2上升为2.113609hm2,人均生态承载力由0.438078 hm2下降为0.406153 hm2,人均生态赤字由0.938671 hm2上升为1.707456 hm2,预测2010年重庆人均生态足迹、生态承载力和生态赤字分别为2.956 hm2、0.3851 hm2和2.5709 hm2。说明重庆地区一直处于生态赤字状态且呈逐年上升态势,现有的发展模式属于不可持续性类型。并由此分析了该地区生态赤字的原因,针对性地提出了一些有建设性的政策建议,以供当地政府部门参考。

    Abstract:

    Based on statistical data for Chongqing Municipality,P.R.China,and using ecological footprint theory,a dynamic calculation was carried out to determine the ecological footprint of Chongqing during the initial ten years that the area was under direct central government administration.The result indicates the following: the per capita ecological footprint in Chongqing increased gradually from 1.3767 49 hm2 in 1997 to 2.113 609 hm2 in 2006;the ecological capacity per capita decreased from 0.438 07 hm2 to 0.406 153 hm2;and the ecological deficit increased from 0.938 671 hm2 to 1.707 456 hm2.By 2010,it is forecasted that: the ecological footprint per capita will be 2.956 hm2;the ecological capacity per capita will be 0.385 1 hm2;and the ecological deficit will be 2.570 9 hm2.All these indicate that Chongqing is entirely in an ecological deficit state with the deficit increasing annually.The development mode of the city is an unsustainable one.In this paper,we summarize the calculated result,point out the reasons for ecological deficits in Chongqing,and conclude with some instructive advice for referral to the Chongqing government.

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梁怀庆,李世蓉,吴德华.重庆直辖十年来生态足迹的动态分析及预测[J].土木与环境工程学报(中英文),2008,30(3). LIANG Huai-qing, LI Shi-rong, WU De-hua. Dynamic Analysis and Forecast of Ecological Footprint in Chongqing during the Initial Ten Years Directly under Central Government Administration[J]. JOURNAL OF CIVIL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING,2008,30(3).10.11835/j. issn.1674-4764.2008.03.029

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