The best chance to extinguish the fire in commercial buildings is at the initial stage of a fire.For the problems during extinguishments at the initial stage of fire,a fire extinguishment system model at initial stage of fire in commercial buildings is designed.The fire data come from the fire cases in Chinese commercial buildings.The expected value and Variance of probability of basic events are calculated by using Bayesian statistical analysis method,which has overcome the difficulty from inefficient fire datum and obtaining repeated fire experience.Then the failure probability of extinguishments system at initial stage of fire is concluded from fault tree analysis and the error propagation analysis of fault tree is made.A systematic strategic decision has been made finally.