In order to deal with frequent collapse accident of the template scaffold, response surface method is employed to conduct sensitivity analysis for initial defects including material defects, manufacturing error and mis-operation. The accurate finite element model of typical template scaffold is mode and the ultimate bearing capacity is analyzed with different thickness of tube wall, elasticity modulus and initial eccentricity. The sensitive amplitude of the ultimate bearing capacity to different initial defects is obtained and the result can provide technical support for effectively controlling collapse accident of template scaffold in structural constructions.