Abstract:At present, the most common method to evaluate the health service and safety reliability of urban shield metro structures is limited to static analysis. In this paper, by applying the concept of Pair-Copula to Bayesian networks, the multi-joint probability distribution of evaluation index was obtained by constructing PCBN (Pair-Copula Bayes Network) structure, which is capable of identifying parameters' dependencies accurately and high-precision reconstruction. Based on the three kinds of failure modes, the correlation analysis and safety evaluation of shield metro structure nodes were conducted. The implicit information in monitoring data was exploited to characterize the risk status of the shield metro structure. As an example, an empty pushing section of Wuhan Metro Line 3 is used to build a PCBN model. Results show that the metro safety status obtained by the PCBN model is in good agreement with the actual risk information in the subway project, demon strating the accuracy and practicability of the PCBN network model proposed in this paper.