Abstract:Reasonable liquefaction assessment of construction sites is the basis of mitigating liquefaction hazards. The current Chinese seismic design code evaluates the liquefaction potential by comparing the critical value of standard penetration test blow count with the measured value. However, due to the significant uncertainties associated with the process of establishing empirical liquefaction criteria, the deterministic method is not an accurate measurement for evaluating the liquefaction potential. To solve this problem, the maximum likehood method is used to calibrate the parameters of four generalized linear models based on the liquefaction case base of Chinese standard penetration test, and four probabilistic evaluation models applied to China are established. The results show that the four generalized linear models differ significantly when the liquefaction probability is small, and the prediction results of the four models are similar when the liquefaction probability is between 30% and 70%. Comparison of the models shows that the Log-log model fits the database best. The formulas for calculating the liquefaction probability and the critical value of standard penetration test blow count under specified liquefaction probability based on the Log-log model are provided. The results of verification analysis show that the overall judgment success ratio of the proposed probabilistic evaluation model of liquefaction is higher than the current Chinese seismic design code.