Probabilistic stability analysis of slope considering spatial variability of parameters under random rainfall
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School of Hydraulic Engineering; Jiangxi Key Laboratory of Structural Safety of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Nanchang Institute of Technology, Nanchang 330099, P. R. China

Clc Number:

P642.22

Fund Project:

National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 52378344); Natural Science Foundation of Jiangxi Province (Nos. 20224BAB204076, 20242BAB23045); The Young Scientific and Technological Talents Sponsorship Project in Ganpo Juncai Support Program (No. 2023QT08)

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    Abstract:

    Accurate probabilistic stability analysis of slope under rainfall effects requires a comprehensive consideration of both the randomness of rainfall and the spatial variability of soil parameters. However, existing studies typically focus on only one of these factors. To address this, a method for probabilistic stability analysis of slope that simultaneously considers both factors has been proposed. The Karhunen-Loève expansion method is employed to simulate the spatial variability of soil parameters, while a bounded random cascade model is used to simulate the randomness of rainfall. The generated rainfall time series is then applied as the upper boundary condition for the seepage and stability analysis of the slope, followed by the calculation of slope failure probability using the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method. Analysis is conducted using the landslide in Juanxuan Village, Suichuan County, Ji’an City, Jiangxi Province, as a case study. The results indicate that the probability analysis results of slope stability obtained by considering both random rainfall and spatial variability of soil parameters are consistent with engineering practice. The continuous infiltration of water stored in the terraced fields at the top of the slope gradually expands the influential range of the slope’s pore water pressure of the slope, while the increase in pore water pressure gradually diminishes, ultimately approaching zero. In comparison to rainfall infiltration, the influ of rainfall redistribution on slope stability is marginal.

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曾祥薇,潘敏,邓志平,甘建军,郑克红.随机降雨下考虑参数空间变异性的边坡稳定概率分析[J].土木与环境工程学报(中英文),2025,47(6):21~31

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History
  • Received:December 03,2024
  • Revised:
  • Adopted:
  • Online: December 17,2025
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