Reliability analysis of bank slope stability in the Heishui River under combined effects of reservoir water level changes and rainfall
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1.School of Civil Engineering, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400045, P. R. China;2.Key Laboratory of the Ministry of Education for Geomechanics and Embankment Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210024, P. R. China;3.State Key Laboratory of Intelligent Geotechnics and Tunnelling, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, Guangdong, P. R. China;4.a. College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering;5. Research Center of Civil, Hydraulic and Power Engineering of Xizang, Xizang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry University, Linzhi 860000, Xizang, P. R. China

Clc Number:

TU43

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Science and Technology Research Program of Chongqing Municipal Education Commission (No. HZ2021001); Transport Science and Technology Program in Sichuan Province (No. 2018-ZL-01); Science and Technology Program of Chongqing Waterway Engineering Bureau of Yangtze River (No. H20230330)

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    Abstract:

    Current slope stability analysis under the combined effects of reservoir water level and rainfall is estimated commonly via the deterministic analysis methods. However, these methods cannot accurately evaluate the slope stability due to the inherent spatial variability of geotechnical parameters. Therefore, in this study, the slope stability influenced by reservoir water level and rainfall is analyzed based on the monitored data during an annual cycle of rainfall and reservoir water level, taking the bank slope of Heishui River in Baihetan reservoir area as an example. Firstly, the three most unfavorable cases are determined through deterministic analysis. Accordingly, the influences of stationary and non-stationary random fields on the results of slope reliability analysis are compared using the stochastic finite difference method (RFDM), considering the spatial variability of effective cohesion c′, effective friction angle φ′ and saturated permeability coefficient ks, respectively. Results show that, compared with the rainfall infiltration, the reservoir water level fluctuation plays a crucial role in slope stability, and the minimum safety factor occurs during the rapid drawdown. Meanwhile, the combined effects of rainfall and reservoir water level would significantly increase the slope failure probability and sliding volume. In addition, the depth-dependent characteristics of geotechnical parameters require to be considered when conducting stochastic analyses of slope stability, otherwise the slope stability would be underestimated.

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仉文岗,冉博,顾鑫,张飞,费建波,王培清,陈亮.库水位变化和降雨联合作用下黑水河岸坡稳定可靠度分析[J].土木与环境工程学报(中英文),2025,47(6):43~51

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History
  • Received:June 05,2024
  • Revised:
  • Adopted:
  • Online: December 17,2025
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