In order to investigate the surface settlement pattern caused by the construction of a twin parallel shield tunnels in an arbitrary arrangement, a relevant theoretical prediction model needs to be established. Considering the effects of ground soil loss rate and convergence pattern, the classical two-dimensional Peck model is improved by introducing equivalent soil loss parameters to find the actual burial depth after tunnel convergence, taking circular tunnel as an example. Based on this, a prediction model for surface settlement due to construction of the twin parallel shield tunnels in any arrangement is established by considering three main influencing factors, such as the angle α between the tunnel axis and the horizontal plane, the radius of the two-lane tunnel (r1,r2) and the tunnel axis distance D. The applicability of the prediction model is verified by the field monitoring results and numerical simulation results of the actual project, and a prediction model for surface settlement due to construction of the twin parallel shield tunnels in any arrangement is established. The main influencing factors of surface settlement caused by construction under arbitrary arrangement of the twin parallel shield tunnels are analyzed. The results show that the prediction model of this study can be used to solve the surface settlement problem caused by the construction of a two-line parallel shield tunnel in any arrangement, and it meets the engineering accuracy requirement of 20%. The critical parameter values [α,r2/r1,D/H'] for the variation of the surface settlement curve from "V" to "W" are [60°,2.0,1.0], which can be used to make a preliminary judgment on the shape of the surface settlement curve and check the rationality of the surface settlement calculation results. It provides reliable guidance for prediction and control of surface settlement deformation in similar tunnel construction.