In order to investigate the law of horizontal axis deviation of segments caused by small curvature radius shield tunnel construction and prevent adverse phenomena such as segment misalignment and damage, this study is based on a modified longitudinal equivalent continuity model and establishes a prediction model for horizontal axis deviation of segments during the construction stage of small curvature radius shield tunneling by constructing the Winkle foundation beam deflection differential equation under the condition of small curvature radius. And the engineering applicability of the prediction model was verified based on the shield tunnel project of Nanchang City's urban rail transit Line 3. The results show that the prediction results of the model in this study fit well with the on-site monitoring results, meet the requirements of the error limit allowed by engineering experience, and the relevant laws are basically consistent. It can effectively solve the problem of calculating the horizontal axis offset of tube sheet during the construction of shield tunnel under the condition of small curvature radius, which provides an effective theoretical guidance and reference for the smooth construction of similar tunnel projects.