In the researches on surface settlement induced by shield tunneling, most of the construction parameters are regarded as deterministic values, ignoring their variability during the control process. This paper aims to investigate the relationship between the control stability of construction parameters control and the surface settlement caused by shield tunneling. Based on the shield tunneling project of a certain section of Wuhan Metro Line 2, a three-dimensional numerical model is established to simulate the whole process of shield tunneling. The influence of the variation level of chamber earth pressure, over-excavation gap, and grouting pressure on the surface settlement is investigated. An effort is also made to gain insight into the influence area of different construction parameters. The results show that the control stability of construction parameters control during the shield tunneling process has a great influence on the surface settlement, and the dispersion degree of surface settlement is positively correlated with the variation level of construction parameters. Moreover, the uncertain surface settlement is affected by the control stability of construction parameters within the primary impact area. According to the numerical analyses, the control standards for the coefficient of variation of the construction parameters were obtained. The research results provide a reference for the construction control and risk assessment of shield tunnel engineering.