办公建筑运行能耗的混沌时间序列复合预测
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西安建筑科技大学

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安徽建筑大学智能建筑与建筑节能安徽省重点实验室开放课题资助,碑林区应用技术研发类项目(GX1903)


Research on chaotic time series composite prediction of office building energy consumption
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1.xi'2.'3.an university of architecture and technology

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The current study is sponsored by the Open Foundation of the Key Lab(center)of Intelligent Building and Building Energy Conservation, Anhui Jianzhu University (Z20190383),The current study is sponsored by Beilin Area Applied Technology Research and Development Project.(GX1903)

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    摘要:

    针对办公建筑已有的能耗预测方法中未能考虑到能耗数据的混沌变化特性,提出了一种基于混沌时间序列的办公建筑运行能耗预测方法。能对研究对象的时间序列进行相空间重构,判断其具备混沌特性,建立混沌理论和支持向量回归的组合模型进行训练,采用Markov链消除组合模型由于参数传递产生的累积误差,得到最终预测结果。为了验证算法的有效性,以西安某办公建筑的能耗监测数据为例进行实例分析,并与非线性自回归神经网络、支持向量回归等其它预测方法进行对比。实验结果表明,经过Markov修正后的混沌时间序列组合模型预测精度显著提高,预测效果优于其它且更符合办公建筑能耗的变化规律,为节能优化提供有效的数据支撑。

    Abstract:

    Aiming at the existing energy consumption prediction methods for office buildings, which fail to take into account the chaotic change characteristics of energy consumption data. A method of energy consumption prediction for office buildings based on chaotic time series is proposed.It can reconstruct the phase space of the time series of the research object, judge that it has chaotic characteristics, establish the combination model of chaos theory and support vector regression for training, and use Markov chain to eliminate the cumulative errors caused by parameter transfer of the combination model, and obtain the final prediction result.In order to verify the effectiveness of the algorithm, the energy consumption monitoring data of an office building in xi 'an was taken as an example for example analysis, and compared with other prediction methods such as nonlinear autoregressive neural network and support vector regression.The experimental results show that the prediction accuracy of the chaotic time series combination model modified by Markov is significantly improved, the prediction effect is better than other models and more consistent with the change law of energy consumption of office buildings, providing effective data support for energy conservation optimization.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-11-06
  • 最后修改日期:2020-03-05
  • 录用日期:2020-03-05
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