基于城市道路卡口数据的交通流量预测研究
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浙江工业大学 计算机科学与技术学院

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Predicting Intersection Traffic based on Seasonal Dependencies
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School of Computer Science and Technology, Zhejiang University of Technology

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    摘要:

    交通流量的预测可以为交通管理部门的工作和车主的出行规划提供很大帮助,如何进行准确且高效的交通流量预测是一个非常重要的问题。传统的交通流量预测数据通常是车速和行车轨迹,研究人员通过在高速上每隔一段距离布置交通传感器获得数据,这些方法应用于城郊地区和高速公路上, 取得了很好的效果,但城市道路人口密集且交通情况复杂,不适合大规模布置传感器获得所需交通数据,所以不能使用现有的方法进行预测。本文提出了一种利用城市道路卡口的交通流量数据进行预测的方法。我们首先通过对已有的交通数据分析来总结交通流量周期性变化的特点,然后基于这些周期性变化的特点来提取相应特征,最后依据这些特征训练适用于城市卡口的交通流量预测模型。我们基于真实交通数据集进行了大量实验,结果表明我们交通流量预测模型的预测值的RMSE和MAPE分别为15.3和7.3,即预测准确度可以达到92.7%。

    Abstract:

    The prediction of traffic flow can be greatly useful for the work of traffic management departments and the travel planning of drivers. How to make accurate and efficient traffic flow prediction is a very important issue. Traditional traffic flow prediction data sources are usually vehicle speed and driving trajectory. The researchers obtained data by arranging traffic sensors on the highway at regular intervals. These methods applied to suburban areas and highways have achieved good results.It is inconvenient to obtain these data on dense and complicated urban roads, and it is impossible to use existing methods to make predictions. Therefore, this paper proposes a method for forecasting by using traffic flow data of urban road checkpoints. We first analyze the characteristics of cyclical changes in traffic flow by analyzing existing traffic data. Then we extract corresponding features based on these cyclic changes. Finally we train traffic flow prediction models which are suitable for urban checkpoints based on these characteristics. We carried out a large number of experiments based on real traffic data sets, and the results show that our traffic flow prediction model has a good prediction effect, with RMSE and MAPE of the predicted values of 15.3 and 7.3, respectively,the accuracy can reach 92.7%.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-12-23
  • 最后修改日期:2020-03-14
  • 录用日期:2020-03-18
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