基于卷积神经网络与门控循环单元的交通流预测模型
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作者单位:

1.中国人民公安大学交通管理学院;2.山东科技大学电气信息系;3.中国人民公安大学

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中图分类号:

U491

基金项目:

公安部公安理论及软科学研究计划项目(2020LLYJGADX020);中国人民公安大学拔尖创新人才培养经费支持研究生科研创新项目成果(2021yjsky014、2021yjsky015)


Multivariable traffic flow prediction model based on convolutional neural network and gate recurrent unit
Author:
Affiliation:

1.School of Traffic Management, People'2.'3.s Public Security University of China;4.School of Traffic Management, People&5.amp;6.#39;7.&8.Department of Electrical Information, Shandong University of Science and Technology;9.People's Public Security University of China

Fund Project:

Public Security Theory and Soft Science Research Project of Ministry of Public Security(2020LLYJGADX020), People's Public Security University of China Top-notch Innovative Talents Training Fund supports the achievements of graduate research and innovation projects(2021yjsky014, 2021yjsky015)

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    摘要:

    为实现交通流序列的多步预测,支持智能交通系统的长期决策任务,提出一种基于编码器-解码器(encoder-decoder, ED)框架的卷积神经网络(convolutional neural networks, CNN)-门循环单元(gate recurrent unit, GRU)模型,简称ED CNN-GRU模型。首先使用CNN作为编码器,对交通流序列进行特征提取,然后使用GRU作为解码器对提取的特征进行解释并输出。实验证明,相较于CNN、GRU单个模型,ED框架有效解决了误差的迅速累积问题。相较于其他基准模型,CNN、GRU模型对于交通流序列的特征提取及解释能力较为优秀。对于未来12个步长的交通流量预测任务,相较于其他基准模型,单变量输入的ED CNN-GRU模型的均方根误差下降约0.344~6.464,平均绝对误差下降约0.192~0.425。相较于单变量输入,多变量输入的ED CNN-GRU模型拥有更好的拟合效果。证明了ED CNN-GRU模型在不同输入维度的多步交通流预测中任务中均具有良好的预测能力,为数据获取条件不同的城市提供了一个支持单变量及多变量输入的多步交通流预测模型。

    Abstract:

    Most of the traffic flow sequences were single-step prediction. To realize multi-step prediction of traffic flow sequence, a convolutional neural networks (CNN)-gate recurrent unit (GRU) model based on encoder-decoder (ED) framework was proposed, abbreviated as ED CNN-GRU model. Firstly, CNN was used as en coder to extract the features of traffic flow sequence. Then GRU was used as decoder to interpret and output the extracted features. Experiments show that compared with CNN and GRU models, ED framework effectively solves the problem of rapid accumulation of errors. Compared with other benchmark models, CNN and GRU models are superior in feature extraction and interpretation of traffic flow series. For the traffic flow prediction task of 12 steps in the future, compared with other benchmark models, the root mean square error of the univariate input ED CNN-GRU model is reduced by about 0.344~6.464, and the mean absolute error is reduced by about 0.192~0.425. Compared with univariate input, the ED CNN-GRU model with multivariate input has a better fitting effect. It is proved that ED CNN-GRU model has good forecasting ability in multi-step traffic flow forecasting tasks with different input dimensions, and provides a multi-step traffic flow forecasting model supporting univariate and multivariate input for cities with different data acquisition conditions.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2021-07-29
  • 最后修改日期:2021-12-22
  • 录用日期:2022-02-22
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