Prediction of the Economic Development for the Circumjacent Reservoir Region of the Longtan Hydropower Project Using Grey Quantitative Analog
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Abstract:
In order to overcome some technical difficulties,we adopt ingenously the grey models combined with the quantitative analog method,and select the Dan Jiangkou Project which has accumulated practical operation data for a long time as the analog project to predict the economic influence for the circumjacent reservoir region of the Longtan hydropower project.On the basis of analog we have built various industrial economic grey models,and compare them with the corresponding predictions for the unconstructed reservoir case.The predictions of the former are greatly larger than the later ones.and hence provides a certain scientific basis for the central leaders to make a decision for constructing the huge hydropower project ultimateiy.
