Short-Term Electric Load Forecasting Based Trends Combination Model
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Abstract:
In short term load forecasting based on ANN,weather is one of the important factors which impacts on load greatly. In order to capture the effect of weather on load, this paper presents a novel thought based on ANN and trends combination short term load forecasting. Decompose the underlying relationships between load and weather variables into three main trends of weekly, daily and hourly. Three separated ANNs capture each trend. Another ANN to arrive at the final forecast combines the forecasts yielded by individual ANNs. The performances of the proposed model and the traditional model are compared on the basis of one week ahead hourly forecasts. Results indicate that the proposed ANN based model can achieve greater forecasting accuracy than the traditional ANN based model.
