The Genetic Algorithms Applied in the Combination Forecasting of Economic Chaos
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Abstract:
Economic chaos is a random-like dynamic behavior resulting from definitive economic system . Although the time series from economic system isn't forecasted in a long term ,but can be predicted precisely in a short term , thus , by which a deterministic model can be constructed . To search chaos character in economic time series , we present a combined forecasting method of economic chaos basing on genetic algorithms and the reconstruction of phase space given by Wolf, this method takes advantage of genetic algorithms to determine the weighting coefficient of combined forecasting. It's greatly overcome the defaults that when traditional forecasting of economic chaos single model is mostly used so as to affect the forecasting precision. At last , an example is given to testify the validity and feasibility of this method.
