Initial return and short-term return are two totally different conceptions. When the anticipated year return is evaluated, we should stand on the conception of short-term return not the initial return. Based on the primary conception of the investment return, and considering the cost of purchasing, this paper gives the method of calculating the rate of short-term return. After the experienced analyses, we think there is excess return in the primary market. However, influenced by the low hit rate, only those investors, whose capital over some limit, can get it. The result explains the phenomena that why little investors leave the primary market for the secondary market. From the other way, the result proves that the investors are rational.
