A model of credit quantitative measurement and management widely used in foreign countries is introduced, and its limitation which appears while the model is used in China is analyzed. According to the chaos time serials constituted by various period credit grades' transition probability of an enterprise and the average value of its ratio of callback due to breach of faith, applying the theory of the chaos time serials and the local prediction method, a credit grades' transition matrix and a matrix of the average ratio of callback due to breach of faith is established. Which is applied to Chinese enterprises. Thus, a credit risk quantitative measurement and management model which is adapted to commercial bank is established, which is important in theory and practice.