Analysis of salt rock underground deposit failure probability in operation period based on response surface method
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Abstract:
For the safety of salt rock underground deposit, uncertainties and their influences are considered, and failure probability during operation period is analyzed. Based on finite element model, equation of limit state surface is transformed into explicit equation by response surface method. Combined with Monte Carlo method, computation efficiency is improved. The deposit could be simulated as a series-parallel system. The element with highest failure probability is determined first, then failure mode and system reliability are computed. Taking Jintan underground gas deposit as an example, the analysis indicates that as storage pressure increases, failure probability of middle part of deposit decreases firstly, then increases gradually when storage pressure accumulates to a certain extent. The failure probabilities of upper part and underside of deposit increase as storage pressure increases. During operation period, controlled failure mode is shear failure of upper part and underside of deposit under high storage pressure. In conclusion, the storage pressure during operation period should be controlled strictly.
