Analysis on the cause prediction of general aviation accidents based on fuzzy cognitive map
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Abstract:
With the rapid development of general aviation industry, the number of general aviation accidents increases year by year.In order to effectively predict and prevent accidents,reduce the loss of life and property, it is particularly important to predict the cause of accidents.Through the statistics and classification of the causes of general aviation accidents in the ten years from 2006 to 2015, the fuzzy cognitive map prediction model is established.According to the calculation method of fuzzy cognitive map, the state values of each factor can be obtained after the system reaches the stability.By calculating the correlation degree, the order of influencing factors of general aviation accidents is obtained, and finally the main factors leading to general aviation accidents are obtained.It is found that this method is feasible to predict the causes of general aviation accidents after verification and analysis with examples, and the main causes of general aviation accidents can be successfully predicted by this method.
