This paper proposes a method to predict the actual cracking of the asphalt pavement under the condition of 5 to 10 years through the material performance test. Based on the relationship between the cracking index and the low-temperature performance of asphalt materials, the 180 s stiffness modulus values of 5 types of commonly used asphalts are obtained by fitting the CAM model, and the cracking indexes of various asphalts under the PAV state are predicted and proposed. The accuracy of this simulation method is verified by actual data. The investigation on the cracking situation of the core samples of the Changji Expressway supports the prediction effect of the CI value on the actual cracking level of the asphalt pavement. The results show that the 180 s modulus calculation method of the asphalt beam obtained under the CAM model is simple and the data reliability is high. The predicted SBS modified asphalt cracking index is consistent with the actual cracking level of the pavement, which also proves the feasibility of the use of material performance to predict the actual crack resistance of the asphalt pavement. According to the standard practice, the CI values of five types of asphalt commonly used in northern China are given.