Multi-scale Interpretable Temporal Prediction Network for Building Energy Consumption Forecasting
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1.Engineering University of Joint Logistic Support Force,Chongqing,401331;2.China;3.Engineering University of Joint Logistic Support Force,401331

Clc Number:

TM715

Fund Project:

Key Scientific Research Projects of the General Logistics Department of the PLA(2023);Key Project of Military Graduate Student Funding Program(JY2023B082);Chongqing Municipal Education Commission Science and Technology Project((KJQN202312903))

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    Abstract:

    Building energy consumption forecasting is crucial for optimizing energy management, reducing operational costs, and achieving carbon neutrality goals. To improve prediction accuracy and result reliability, this study proposes a Multi-Scale Interpretable Temporal Prediction Network Model(ITSFN) through the collaborative optimization of Long Short-Term Temporal Networks (LSTM) and Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KAN). The model integrates temporal-environmental feature decoupling and a dynamic attention mechanism, explicitly decomposing time-series data into seasonal, trend, and residual components to construct a structured feature space. It employs a parallel architecture of Gated Recurrent Units (GRU) and multi-head attention for multi-scale feature modeling. Tested on an energy consumption dataset from a university teaching building in a hot-summer/cold-winter region, the results show that ITSFN reduces the RMSE of total energy consumption prediction by 13.9% compared to LSTM and decreases the RMSE of sub-item energy consumption prediction by 31.1% compared to Transformer. Additionally, ITSFN enhances the noise suppression coefficient to 0.89 through feature decoupling, achieves a local attention angle of 0.92 in mutation regions, and reduces over-smoothing by 29.6% compared to traditional methods. By quantifying feature contributions, it reveals the evolutionary patterns of component weights, validating the model"s effectiveness and practicality.

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History
  • Received:June 12,2025
  • Revised:July 04,2025
  • Adopted:September 30,2025
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